August 15, 2019
In an interview with Fox Business, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard shared his views on the U.S. economy, monetary policy, yield curve inversion, financial market volatility, inflation and inflation expectations, and global uncertainty. He also discussed cryptocurrencies and nominal GDP targeting, among other topics.
Bullard noted that a flight to safety is occurring, which is probably driving U.S. bond yields somewhat lower. Regarding yield curve inversion, he said, “Any inversion that’s going to send a bearish signal for the U.S. economy would have to be sustained over a period of time, and so we’re going to have to wait and see on that.”
On inflation expectations, Bullard noted that market-based measures of inflation expectations suggest that markets expect inflation of only 1% or 1.1% over the next five years. “That’s not high enough to meet our target, so that’s something I’ll definitely take into account if it’s sustained going forward going into the September meeting,” he said.
While many numbers on the U.S. economy look pretty good, there is a lot of uncertainty globally, including a global growth slowdown and trade uncertainty, Bullard noted. He said that those factors have to be taken into account in terms of how they will eventually affect the U.S. economy.
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