Jim Bullard's Research Papers
- "Incomplete Credit Markets and Monetary Policy," with Costas Azariadis, Aarti Singh and Jacek Suda, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, June 2019, 103, pp. 83-101.
Working Paper Version (pdf).
Working paper summary, press release and related news articles, May 28, 2015. - "Optimal Monetary Policy for the Masses," March 2019,
with Riccardo DiCecio,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2019-009.
Abstract.
Full Text (pdf).
Related presentations. - "Nominal GDP Targeting With Heterogeneous Labor Supply,"
with Aarti Singh,
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2019, forthcoming.
Working Paper Version (pdf). - "R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, April 2018, 53(2), pp. 60-65.
Related presentation at the 34th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C., February 26, 2018. - "Permazero,"
Cato Journal, Spring/Summer 2016, 36(2), pp. 415-29.
Cato Journal article (offsite pdf).
Related speech, delivered Nov. 12, 2015, at the Cato Institute.
Related article in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. - "The Optimal Inflation Target in an Economy with Limited Enforcement,"
with Gaetano Antinolfi and Costas Azariadis,
Macroeconomic Dynamics, March 2016, 20 (Special Issue 2), pp. 582-600.
Working Paper Version (pdf). - "The Stability of Macroeconomic Systems with Bayesian Learners," with Jacek Suda,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, January 2016, 62(1), pp. 1-16.
Working Paper Version (pdf). - "Three Challenges to Central Bank Orthodoxy," with Kevin L. Kliesen, Business Economics, October 2015, 50(4), pp. 191-99.
Related speech, delivered Oct. 2, 2015, at the Shadow Open Market Committee Meeting, New York, N.Y.
Related article in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. - "When Does Determinacy Imply Expectational Stability?"
with Stefano Eusepi,
International Economic Review, February 2014, 55(1), pp. 1-22.
Working Paper Version (pdf). - "Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules,"
with Jasmina Arifovic and Olena Kostyshyna,
Economic Journal, March 2013, 123(567), pp. 38-76.
Working Paper Version (pdf). - "Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation,"
with
Carlos Garriga and
Christopher J. Waller.
Presented May 30, 2012, by Christopher Waller at the 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance.
Paper (pdf).
Presentation (pdf). - "Learning and the Great Moderation,"
with Aarti Singh,
International Economic Review, May 2012, 53(2), pp. 375-97.
Working Paper Version (pdf). -
"Death of a Theory," presented in St. Louis January 13, 2012.
Paper (pdf).
Executive Summary (pdf).
Presentation (pdf).
Press Release.
Related news articles.
Blog post by Noah Smith: "Filling a hole or priming the pump?" - "A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance,"
with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja,
Macroeconomic Dynamics, April 2010, 14(2), pp. 166-88.
Working Paper Version. - "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in a Two-Block World Economy,"
with Eric Schaling,
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, December 2009, 41(8), pp. 1585-1912.
Working Paper Version. - "Worldwide Macroeconomic Stability and Monetary Policy Rules,"
with Aarti Singh,
Journal of Monetary Economics, October 2008, 55(Supplement 1), pp. S34-S47. Contributions to Macroeconomics in Honor of John Taylor - Supplement issue sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, containing selected papers from an October 12-13, 2007 conference honoring John Taylor.
Working Paper Version. - "Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-Rational Exuberance,"
with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja,
American Economic Review, June 2008, 98(3), pp. 1163-77.
Working Paper Version. - "A Leisurely Reading of the Life Cycle Consumption Data,"
with James Feigenbaum,
Journal of Monetary Economics,
November 2007, 54(8), pp. 2305-20.
Working Paper Version. - "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia,"
with Kaushik Mitra,
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2007, 39(5), pp. 1177-212.
Download Mathematica programs: Lagmsv.pdf, Forwardmsv.pdf, Lagestability.pdf, and Forwardestability.pdf.
Working Paper Version. - "Escapist Policy Rules"
with In-Koo Cho,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, November 2005, 29(11), pp. 1841-65.
Working Paper Version. - "Near-Rational Exuberance," October 2004, Revised September 2005,
with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-025B.
Abstract.
Full Text (pdf). - "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?"
with Stefano Eusepi,
Review of Economic Dynamics, April 2005, 8(2), pp. 324-59.
Working Paper Version. -
"Trend-Reverting Fluctuations and the Life-Cycle Model"
with Costas Azariadis and Lee Ohanian,
Journal of Economic Theory, December 2004, 119(2), pp. 334-56.
Working Paper Version. - "Learning and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Data," August 2004,
with J. Duffy,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-016A.
Abstract.
Full Text. - "Central Bank Design in General Equilibrium"
with Christopher J. Waller,
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, February 2004, 36(1), pp. 95-114.
Working Paper Version. - "Intermediaries and Payments Instruments"
with Bruce D. Smith,
Journal of Economic Theory, April 2003, 109(2), pp. 172-97.
Working Paper Version. - "The Value of Inside and Outside Money"
with Bruce D. Smith,
Journal of Monetary Economics, March 2003, 50(2), pp. 389-417.
Working Paper Version. - "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules"
with Kaushik Mitra,
Journal of Monetary Economics, September 2002, 49(6), pp. 1105-29.
Working Paper Version. - "The Value of Inside and Outside Money: Expanded Version," September 2001,
with Bruce D. Smith,
Federal Reserve of St. Louis Working Paper 2001-011A.
Abstract.
Full Text. - "Public and Private Circulating Liabilities"
with Costas Azariadis and Bruce D. Smith,
Journal of Economic Theory, July 2001, 99(1/2), pp. 59-116.
Working Paper Version. - "Learning and Excess Volatility"
with John Duffy,
Macroeconomic Dynamics, April 2001, 5(2), pp. 272-302.
Working Paper Version. - "An Empirically Plausible Model of Low Real Interest Rates and Unbacked Government Debt"
with Steve Russell,
Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1999, 44(3), pp. 477-508.
Working Paper Version. - "Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs"
with John Duffy,
Computational Economics, February 1999, 13(1), pp. 41-60.
Working Paper Version. - "How Costly is Sustained Low Inflation for the US Economy?" Revised March 1998,
with Steven Russell,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working Paper 1997-012B.
Abstract.
Full Text. - "On Learning and the Stability of Cycles"
with John Duffy,
Macroeconomic Dynamics, March 1998, 2(1), pp. 22-48.
Working Paper Version. - "A Model of Learning and Emulation with Artificial Adaptive Agents"
with John Duffy,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, February 1998, 22(2), pp. 179-207.
Working Paper Version. - "The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach"
with Jasmina Arifovic and John Duffy,
Journal of Economic Growth, June 1997, 2(2), pp. 185-209.
Working Paper Version. - "The Long-run Relationship Between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies"
with John Keating,
Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1995, 36(3), pp. 477-96.
Working Paper Version. - "Learning Equilibria,"
Journal of Economic Theory, December 1994, 64(2), pp. 468-85.
Working Paper Version. - "Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economic Models: Implications for Policy Decisions"
with A. Butler,
Economic Journal, July 1993, 103(419), pp. 849-65.
Working Paper Version. - "Time-varying Parameters and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations Under Least Squares Learning," Economics Letters, October 1992, 40(2), pp, 159-66.