Jim Bullard's Research Papers

"Incomplete Credit Markets and Monetary Policy," with Costas Azariadis, Aarti Singh and Jacek Suda, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, June 2019, 103, pp. 83-101.
Working Paper Version (pdf).
Working paper summary, press release and related news articles, May 28, 2015.
"Optimal Monetary Policy for the Masses," March 2019, with Riccardo DiCecio, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2019-009.
Abstract.
Full Text (pdf).
Related presentations.
"Nominal GDP Targeting With Heterogeneous Labor Supply," with Aarti Singh, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2019, forthcoming.
Working Paper Version (pdf).
"R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, April 2018, 53(2), pp. 60-65.
Related presentation at the 34th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C., February 26, 2018.
"Permazero," Cato Journal, Spring/Summer 2016, 36(2), pp. 415-29.
Cato Journal article (offsite pdf).
Related speech, delivered Nov. 12, 2015, at the Cato Institute.
Related article in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.
"The Optimal Inflation Target in an Economy with Limited Enforcement," with Gaetano Antinolfi and Costas Azariadis, Macroeconomic Dynamics, March 2016, 20 (Special Issue 2), pp. 582-600.
Working Paper Version (pdf).
"The Stability of Macroeconomic Systems with Bayesian Learners," with Jacek Suda, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, January 2016, 62(1), pp. 1-16.
Working Paper Version (pdf).
"Three Challenges to Central Bank Orthodoxy," with Kevin L. Kliesen, Business Economics, October 2015, 50(4), pp. 191-99.
Related speech, delivered Oct. 2, 2015, at the Shadow Open Market Committee Meeting, New York, N.Y.
Related article in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.
"When Does Determinacy Imply Expectational Stability?" with Stefano Eusepi, International Economic Review, February 2014, 55(1), pp. 1-22.
Working Paper Version (pdf).
"Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules," with Jasmina Arifovic and Olena Kostyshyna, Economic Journal, March 2013, 123(567), pp. 38-76.
Working Paper Version (pdf).
"Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation," with Carlos Garriga and Christopher J. Waller. Presented May 30, 2012, by Christopher Waller at the 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance.
Paper (pdf).
Presentation (pdf).
"Learning and the Great Moderation," with Aarti Singh, International Economic Review, May 2012, 53(2), pp. 375-97.
Working Paper Version (pdf).
"Death of a Theory," presented in St. Louis January 13, 2012.
Paper (pdf).
Executive Summary (pdf).
Presentation (pdf).
Press Release.
Related news articles.
Blog post by Noah Smith: "Filling a hole or priming the pump?"
"A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance," with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja, Macroeconomic Dynamics, April 2010, 14(2), pp. 166-88.
Working Paper Version.
"Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in a Two-Block World Economy," with Eric Schaling, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, December 2009, 41(8), pp. 1585-1912.
Working Paper Version.
"Worldwide Macroeconomic Stability and Monetary Policy Rules," with Aarti Singh, Journal of Monetary Economics, October 2008, 55(Supplement 1), pp. S34-S47. Contributions to Macroeconomics in Honor of John Taylor - Supplement issue sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, containing selected papers from an October 12-13, 2007 conference honoring John Taylor.
Working Paper Version.
"Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-Rational Exuberance," with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja, American Economic Review, June 2008, 98(3), pp. 1163-77.
Working Paper Version.
"A Leisurely Reading of the Life Cycle Consumption Data," with James Feigenbaum, Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2007, 54(8), pp. 2305-20.
Working Paper Version.
"Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," with Kaushik Mitra, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2007, 39(5), pp. 1177-212.
Download Mathematica programs: Lagmsv.pdf, Forwardmsv.pdf, Lagestability.pdf, and Forwardestability.pdf.
Working Paper Version.
"Escapist Policy Rules" with In-Koo Cho, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, November 2005, 29(11), pp. 1841-65.
Working Paper Version.
"Near-Rational Exuberance," October 2004, Revised September 2005, with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-025B.
Abstract.
Full Text (pdf).
"Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?" with Stefano Eusepi, Review of Economic Dynamics, April 2005, 8(2), pp. 324-59.
Working Paper Version.
"Trend-Reverting Fluctuations and the Life-Cycle Model" with Costas Azariadis and Lee Ohanian, Journal of Economic Theory, December 2004, 119(2), pp. 334-56.
Working Paper Version.
"Learning and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Data," August 2004, with J. Duffy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-016A.
Abstract.
Full Text.
"Central Bank Design in General Equilibrium" with Christopher J. Waller, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, February 2004, 36(1), pp. 95-114.
Working Paper Version.
"Intermediaries and Payments Instruments" with Bruce D. Smith, Journal of Economic Theory, April 2003, 109(2), pp. 172-97.
Working Paper Version.
"The Value of Inside and Outside Money" with Bruce D. Smith, Journal of Monetary Economics, March 2003, 50(2), pp. 389-417.
Working Paper Version.
"Learning About Monetary Policy Rules" with Kaushik Mitra, Journal of Monetary Economics, September 2002, 49(6), pp. 1105-29.
Working Paper Version.
"The Value of Inside and Outside Money: Expanded Version," September 2001, with Bruce D. Smith, Federal Reserve of St. Louis Working Paper 2001-011A.
Abstract.
Full Text.
"Public and Private Circulating Liabilities" with Costas Azariadis and Bruce D. Smith, Journal of Economic Theory, July 2001, 99(1/2), pp. 59-116.
Working Paper Version.
"Learning and Excess Volatility" with John Duffy, Macroeconomic Dynamics, April 2001, 5(2), pp. 272-302.
Working Paper Version.
"An Empirically Plausible Model of Low Real Interest Rates and Unbacked Government Debt" with Steve Russell, Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1999, 44(3), pp. 477-508.
Working Paper Version.
"Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs" with John Duffy, Computational Economics, February 1999, 13(1), pp. 41-60.
Working Paper Version.
"How Costly is Sustained Low Inflation for the US Economy?" Revised March 1998, with Steven Russell, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working Paper 1997-012B.
Abstract.
Full Text.
"On Learning and the Stability of Cycles" with John Duffy, Macroeconomic Dynamics, March 1998, 2(1), pp. 22-48.
Working Paper Version.
"A Model of Learning and Emulation with Artificial Adaptive Agents" with John Duffy, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, February 1998, 22(2), pp. 179-207.
Working Paper Version.
"The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach" with Jasmina Arifovic and John Duffy, Journal of Economic Growth, June 1997, 2(2), pp. 185-209.
Working Paper Version.
"The Long-run Relationship Between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies" with John Keating, Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1995, 36(3), pp. 477-96.
Working Paper Version.
"Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, December 1994, 64(2), pp. 468-85.
Working Paper Version.
"Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economic Models: Implications for Policy Decisions" with A. Butler, Economic Journal, July 1993, 103(419), pp. 849-65.
Working Paper Version.
"Time-varying Parameters and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations Under Least Squares Learning," Economics Letters, October 1992, 40(2), pp, 159-66.