March 25, 2020
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard talked on CNBC’s Squawk Box program about the expected performance of the U.S. economy during and after the planned partial shutdown due to the coronavirus. “It’s an investment in public health,” Bullard said. “It’s not a recession as conventionally defined because this is an intentional move.”
Most of the disruption likely will be in the second quarter of this year, Bullard said, with the third quarter a “transition” quarter, with businesses coming back online.
“Then I think you’d see boom quarters,” in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, Bullard said, “where there’s a lot of production at that point, because there would be a pent-up demand.”
Bullard also referred viewers to his March 23 blog post on the U.S. macroeconomy during a pandemic adjustment period for more information.
Having trouble with the video? Watch it here.