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Economic Data
FRED-SD: State-Level Databases for Macroeconomic Research and Forecasting
FRED-SD is a large macroeconomic database designed for the empirical analysis of state-level. The datasets of monthly and quarterly observations are updated in real-time through the FRED database.
Research Interests
applications of Bayesian econometricsSelected Work
“Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage”
with Amy Guisinger and Michael W. McCracken
Forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Related working paper (PDF)
“Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis”
with Amy Guisinger and Laura E. Jackson
Forthcoming in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
Related working paper (PDF)
“Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements”
with Amy Guisinger and Daniel Soques
Econometrics and Statistics, January 2024, Vol. 29, pp. 132-149
Related working paper (PDF)
“A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications”
with Michael J. Dueker, Laura E. Jackson, and Martin Sola
Oxford Open Economics, 2023, Vol. 2, pp. 1-12
Related working paper (PDF)
“Forecasting Low-Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High-Frequency Data”
with Ana B. Galvão
Journal of Applied Econometrics, November/December 2022, Vol. 37, No. 7, pp. 1314-1333
Related working paper (PDF)
“Business Cycles Across Space and Time”
with Neville Francis and Daniel Soques
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, June 2022, Vol. 54, No. 4, pp. 921-952
Related working paper (PDF)
“Contagious Switching”
with Jeremy M. Piger and Daniel Soques
Journal of Applied Econometrics, March 2022, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 415-432
Related working paper (PDF)
“A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative To Long-run Restrictions With An Application To Technology Shocks”
with Riccardo DiCecio, Neville Francis, and Jennifer E. Roush
Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2014, Vol. 96, No. 4, pp. 638–647
Related working paper (PDF)
“Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data”
with Valerie A. Ramey and Sarah Zubairy
American Economic Review, May 2013, Vol. 103, No. 3, pp. 129-134
Related working paper (PDF)
“Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing”
with Ivana Komunjer
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 1066-80
Related working paper (PDF)
“The Propagation of Regional Recessions”
with James D. Hamilton
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 935-47
Related working paper (PDF)
“Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States”
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2005, Vol. 87, No. 4, pp. 604-16
Related working paper (PDF)
“On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts”
with Julie Bennett
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2022
“Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics”
with Julie Bennett and E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Third Quarter 2021
“A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes”
with Laura E. Jackson and Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2019, No. 6
“Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector”
with Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2019, Vol. 27, No. 3
“Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP”
with Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2018, Vol. 26, No. 4
“Comparing Measures of Potential Output”
with Amy Guisinger and Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2018
“Measuring Potential Output”
with Amy Guisinger and Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2018, No. 25
“How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?”
with Leora Friedberg, Wei Sun, and Anthony Webb
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Third Quarter 2017
“Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?”
with Neville Francis and Daniel Soques
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2015
“A Measure of Price Pressures”
with Laura E. Jackson and Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2015
“Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models (PDF)”
with Neville Francis and Daniel Soques
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2023-021A, September 2023
Online Appendix (PDF)
“The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves (PDF)”
with Hannah G. Shell and Daniel Soques
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2022-037A, November 2022
“Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics (PDF)”
with Laura E. Jackson and Christopher Otrok
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2019-034D, June 2022
“The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shocks (PDF)”
with Neville Francis and Eric Ghysels
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2011-009C, October 2011
“Identifying Technology Shocks in the Frequency Domain (PDF)”
with Riccardo DiCecio
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2010-025A, August 2010
“Structural Breaks and Regional Disparities in the Transmission of Monetary Policy (PDF)”
with Howard J. Wall
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2003-008C, January 2005
“Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure (PDF)”
with Leora Friedberg
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2002-022D, October 2002
“Duration Dependence in Monetary Policy: International Evidence (PDF)”
with Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2002-021A, October 2002
“Modeling Volcker as a Non-Absorbing State: Agnostic Identification of a Markov-Switching VAR (PDF)”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2002-018A, August 2002
Michael T. Owyang is a senior economic policy advisor in the Research division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which he joined in October 2000. His current research agenda is built around applications of Bayesian econometrics. Owyang received his bachelor’s degrees in mechanical engineering and economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and his master’s degree and Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, San Diego.
He has published papers in Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, among others. Since 2021, he has also been a St. Louis Fed Review co-editor.
