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Research Interests
international financial markets, financial volatility, unconventional monetary policy, market efficiencySelected Work
“An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy” (PDF)
with Saroj Bhattarai
Journal of Economic Literature, June 2022, Vol. 60, No. 2, 8, pp. 527–597
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“Estimation of the Discontinuous Leverage Effect: Evidence from the NASDAQ Order Book”
with Markus Bibinger and Lars Winkelmann
Journal of Econometrics, April 2019, Vol. 209, No. 2, pp. 158-184
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“Unconventional Monetary Policy Had Large International Effects”
Journal of Banking & Finance, March 2015, Vol. 52, pp. 101-111
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“Forecasting The Equity Risk Premium: The Role Of Technical Indicators”
with David E. Rapach, Jun Tu, and Guofu Zhou
Management Science, July 2014, Vol. 60, No. 7, pp. 1772-1791
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“The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market”
with Joshua Ulrich and Paul A. Weller
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, April 2009, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 467-488
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“The Temporal Pattern of Trading Rule Returns and Central Bank Intervention: Intervention Does Not Generate Technical Trading Rule Profits”
Journal of International Economics, October 2002, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 211-32
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“Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach”
with Robert D. Dittmar and Paul A. Weller
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, December 1997, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 405-426
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“Why Have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve?”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2024, No. 5
“Systemic Financial Risks, Macroprudential Tools and Monetary Policy”
with Jason Dunn
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2023
“Interest Rate Risk, Bank Runs and Silicon Valley Bank”
with Michelle Clark Neely
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2023
“Modeling Professional Recession Forecasts”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2023, No. 21
“The FDIC Studies “Options for Deposit Insurance Reform”“
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2023, No. 14
“The Rise and Fall of M2”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2023, No. 11
“Financial Market Reactions to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2022
“How Do Economists Think about the Environment and Climate Change?”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2022
“Why Price Controls Should Stay in the History Books”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2022
“A Shutoff of Russian Natural Gas”
with Jason Dunn
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2022, No. 29
“The Russian Invasion, Oil and Gasoline Prices, and Recession”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2022, No. 10
“Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis”
with Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, and Enrique Martínez-García
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2021
“Sluggish News Reactions: A Combinatorial Approach for Synchronizing Stock Jumps” (PDF)
with Nabil Bouamara, Kris Boudt, and Sébastien Laurent
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2024-006A, March 2024
“Systemic Tail Risk: High-Frequency Measurement, Evidence and Implications” (PDF)
with Deniz Erdemlioglu and Xiye Yang
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2023-016A, July 2023
“Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches” (PDF)
with Maximilian Ahrens, Deniz Erdemlioglu, Michael McMahon, and Xyie Yang
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2023-013B, February 2024
“Financial Market Reactions to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine” (PDF)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2022-032A, September 2022
“More Stories of Unconventional Monetary Policy” (PDF)
with Evan Karson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2020-043A, October 2020
“The Dynamic Interaction of Order Flows and the CAD/USD Exchange Rate” (PDF)
with Nikola Gradojevic
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2008-006C, August 2009
“Identifying the Effects of U.S. Intervention on the Levels of Exchange Rates” (PDF)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2005-031C, May 2006
“The Case for Foreign Exchange Intervention: The Government as an Active Reserve Manager” (PDF)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2004-031B, November 2004
“Implied Volatility from Options on Gold Futures: Do Econometric Forecasts Add Value or Simply Paint the Lilly?” (PDF)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2003-018C, July 2003
“Testing Asset Pricing Models with Euler Equations: It's Far Worse Than You Think” (PDF)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1995-018A, September 1995
“A Reconsideration of the Properties of the Generalized Method of Moments in Asset Pricing Models” (PDF)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 1994-010A, April 1994
Christopher J. Neely is a senior economic policy advisor in the Research division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which he joined in August 1993. Neely conducts empirical research in international financial markets that has focused on financial volatility, unconventional monetary policy, and market efficiency. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Iowa in 1993.
Neely has published in leading academic journals, including Journal of Economic Literature, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Econometrics; he is or has been an associate, visiting, and/or co-editor at many journals, including Journal of Money, Credit and Banking and Journal of Banking and Finance. While working at the Fed, Neely has taught economics and finance as an instructor, adjunct, or visiting professor at several universities, including the University of Iowa, Washington University in St. Louis, Saint Louis University, University of Missouri at St. Louis, and University of Hawaii.
