Research Interests
macroeconomics, financeSelected Work
“Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets”
with Emilio Espino, Fernando M. Martin, and Juan M. Sánchez
Journal of International Economics, December 2025, Vol. 158, 104179
Related working paper (PDF)
“Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default”
with Emilio Espino, Fernando M. Martin, and Juan M. Sánchez
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics, July 2025, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 74-113
Related working paper (PDF)
“Macroeconomic Implications of Uniform Pricing”
with Diego Daruich
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics, July 2023, Vol. 15, No. 3, 3, pp. 64-108
Related working paper (PDF)
“Long-Term Finance and Investment with Frictional Asset Markets”
American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics, October 2021, Vol. 13, No. 11, pp. 441-48
Related working paper (PDF)
“The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation”
with Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran
Journal of Political Economy, August 2020, Vol. 8, No. 128, pp. 2839-2879
Related working paper (PDF)
“Explaining Intergenerational Mobility: The Role of Fertility and Family Transfers”
with Diego Daruich
Review of Economic Dynamics, April 2020, Vol. 36, pp. 220-245
Related working paper (PDF)
“Investment and Bilateral Insurance”
with Emilio Espino and Juan M. Sánchez
Journal of Economic Theory, July 2018, Vol. 176, pp. 311-341
Related working paper (PDF)
“The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low”
with Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2018, Vol. 33
“Are U.S. Treasuries Still 'Convenient'?”
with Nicholas Sullivan
On the Economy, October 14, 2025
“Understanding the 'Swoosh'-Shaped Yield Curve for Treasuries”
with Nicholas Sullivan
On the Economy, October 9, 2025
“The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective”
with Anna Cole and Joseph Martorana
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Third Quarter 2025
“Beyond the Mean: Exploring Tail Risks in Inflation Expectations”
On the Economy, July 2, 2024
“Rising Liquidity among U.S. Households and Its Policy Implications”
with Samuel Jordan-Wood
On the Economy, May 6, 2024
“External Shocks versus Domestic Policies in Emerging Markets”
with Emilio Espino, Fernando M. Martin, and Juan M. Sánchez
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2023
“Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt”
with Samuel Jordan-Wood
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2023, No. 13
“Where Do You Keep Your Liquid Wealth—Bank Deposits or T-bills?”
with Samuel Jordan-Wood
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2022, No. 33
“Liquidity Dries Up”
with Samuel Jordan-Wood
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2022, No. 24
“COVID-19: Scarring Body and Mind”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2020, No. 43
“Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2019, No. 20
“Tail Risk: Part 2, The Missing Recovery After the Great Recession”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2019, No. 19
“Tail Risk: Part 1, The Persistent Effects of the Great Recession”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2019, No. 18
“Stylized Facts on the Organization of Small Business Partnerships”
with Emilio Espino and Juan M. Sánchez
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2016
“When Liquidity Matters: Firm Balance Sheets during Large Crises” (PDF)
with Mahdi Ebsim and Miguel Faria e Castro
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2025-019C, March 2026
“The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States” (PDF)
with Miguel Faria e Castro and Jeremy Majerovitz
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2025-013A, June 2025
“An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing” (PDF)
with Miguel Faria e Castro and Samuel Jordan-Wood
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2024-016E, April 2026
“The Impact of Racial Segregation on College Attainment in Spatial Equilibrium” (PDF)
with Victoria Gregory and Hannah Rubinton
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2022-036E, July 2023
“Liquidity and Investment in General Equilibrium” (PDF)
with Nicolas Caramp and Keisuke Teeple
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2022-022G, June 2024
“Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19” (PDF)
with Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2020-009A, April 2020
Julian Kozlowski is an economic policy advisor in the Research division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which he joined in July 2018. Most of his research focuses on macro-financial topics, such as the role of liquid assets, imperfect information, and inequality. He received his Ph.D. in economics from New York University in 2018 and M.A. and B.A. degrees in economics in Argentina from Di Tella University in 2012 and 2009, respectively.
He has published articles in the Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Journal of Economic Theory, and Review of Economic Dynamics, among other journals. Kozlowski regularly contributes to briefings for the Bank president to discuss the economy and policy views. He has taught financial economics at the graduate level at Washington University in St. Louis since 2023.