Fourth Quarter 2016

In This Edition

  • A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth

    Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements.

  • Duration Dependence and Composition in Unemployment Spells

    This article reviews the evidence for duration dependence in job-finding rates and its implications for the unemployment duration distribution. The authors document duration dependence and show that it exists within nearly every demographic subgroup.

  • Optimal Ramsey Capital Taxation with Endogenous Government Spending

    The authors study optimal capital income taxation in heterogeneous agent economies featuring endogenous government spending. Similar to Aiyagari (1995), they find that the long-run optimal capital tax rate should not be zero as long as the competitive equilibrium risk-free interest rate differs from the subjective time discount rate.

  • Stylized Facts on the Organization of Small Business Partnerships

    The authors study the internal organization of small business partnerships and focus on the number of owners and ownership structure and the dynamics of these variables. They find that partnerships tend to have a small number of owners with equal distribution of ownership shares.