Not Working, Out-of-School Young Adults in the U.S. by Race and Geography

The 2024 State of Economic Equity discussed some of the economic challenges that exist for young adults (defined as those ages 18 to 24) in the U.S. The report described data showing that more than a third of young adults reported having no salary or wages. Many of these young adults belong to a group known as “disconnected youth,” meaning they are neither in school nor working.Different terms have been used in the past to describe this group, including “at risk” and “delinquent.” More recently, “opportunity youth” has been adopted because it alludes to the opportunities these young adults have to work and learn and the opportunity for overall economic growth with participation from this group. Another common term for individuals in this group is NEETs, which stands for “not in employment, education or training. Even when excluding the summer months of June through August, 13.8% of young adults nationwide were disconnected in 2020, a record high. Excluding the summer months, the rate fell slightly to 13.3% in 2022.

By not having a job or receiving further schooling, young adults miss out on income- and wealth-building opportunities. As a result, they could face long-term economic disadvantages that, in aggregate, could contribute to a less productive workforce and thus slower economic growth. This blog post examines the prevalence of disconnected young adults in the U.S. by disaggregating data by geography and race and ethnicity. We used the following geographical areas:

• Rural areas: These encompass areas outside of metropolitan statistical areas and micropolitan statistical areas.
• Principal cities: These are the largest cities in 260 metropolitan statistical and micropolitan statistical areasThe metro areas are noted in “List 1” of this U.S. Census Bureau document (PDF). (“metro areas”) identified in the Current Population Survey (CPS).The CPS surveys U.S. households and is conducted jointly by the Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Metro areas: These are the 260 metro areas identified in the CPS. They allow us to look at economically connected regions.

The key observations of our analysis, which we later detail in this post, are as follows:

• 1 in 5 rural young adults are disconnected, compared with 17.1% of young adults who live in principal cities and 15.6% of young adults in metro areas.
• Regardless of geography, young Black adults have the highest rates of disconnection: 29.1% (rural), 23.8% (city), 20.9% (metro area).
• Compared with those in metro areas, larger shares of disconnected young adults in rural areas and cities come from families with income of less than $50,000.
• Educational attainment plays a role in being disconnected; 80.2% of disconnected young adults in rural areas and two-thirds of disconnected young adults in cities have no more than a high school diploma.No more than a high school diploma includes those who have not graduated high school.
• Disconnected young adults in rural areas have a disability rate of 14.8%, higher than the disability rates of disconnected young adults in cities or metro areas.

Rates of Disconnection among Young Adults

At a national level, how common is it for young adults to be disconnected? How does the rate of young adults who aren’t in school or working vary by geography? To investigate these questions, we pooled all monthly CPS microdata from January 2017 to April 2024 to create a sample size adequate for disaggregation. This period also covers economic conditions before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

We first estimated the share of 18- to 24-year-olds not employed and not enrolled in high school or college (i.e., disconnected) in rural areas, principal cities and metro areas located across all 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. Again, estimates for principal cities consist of respondents who live in the largest city within each of the 260 metro areas identified in the CPS; estimates for metro areas consist of all respondents living within those metro areas.

The national rate of disconnected young adults during our period of observation was 16%. When broken out by geography, the rate of disconnected young adults in rural areas was the highest at 20.2%, meaning that 1 in 5 rural young adults was neither working nor enrolled in school. The rate of disconnected young adults in cities sat at 17.1%. At 15.6%, the rate of disconnected young adults in metro areas was the lowest.

Rates of disconnection differ by race and ethnicity as well. To describe these patterns, we identified 18- to 24-year-old respondents who were white, Black and Hispanic.The white, Black and “other” racial groups are those respondents identifying as non-Hispanic. The Hispanic group comprises respondents identifying as Hispanic or Latino regardless of race. An “other” group comprises American Indians, Alaska Natives, Asians, Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders and those identifying as multiple races.

The following table shows that young Black adults in rural areas had the highest disconnection rate, 29.1%. Young adults of other races in rural areas had the second highest disconnection rate, 26.9%, followed by young Black adults in cities, 23.8%. Young Hispanic adults in cities and rural areas had disconnection rates of 19.7% and 19.3%, respectively. The highest disconnection rate for young white adults was 18.5% in rural areas.

A Portrait of Disconnected Young Adults

What are some characteristics of the disconnected young adult population in the U.S.? Do these characteristics differ in rural areas, cities and metro areas? The table below provides a basic profile of the nation’s disconnected young adults for the three geographic areas.

At the national level, 45.7% of disconnected young adults are white, meaning that, numerically, they form the largest segment of disconnected young adults. Yet 52.6% of all young adults—disconnected or not—are white.

In contrast, young Hispanic adults and young Black made up 26.2% and 18.2% of the disconnected population while representing only 23.5% and 13.7%, respectively, of the entire young adult population. In other words, disconnected young adults who are Hispanic and those who are Black make up a disproportionate share of the disconnected young adult population.

In terms of gender, men are 48.5% of disconnected young adults in the U.S., while women represented 51.5%.

Almost 70% of disconnected young adults have no more than a high school diploma. Additionally, just over half (52.3%) of disconnected young adults come from families with income of less than $50,000. It is important to note that, nationwide, more than 20% of disconnected young adults come from families with incomes of at least $100,000. This result deserves further examination because it suggests that a significant number of young adults from families with higher levels of resources are disconnected from earning and learning opportunities. The share of disconnected young adults in the U.S. that reported a disability was 12.6%, with the most frequent type of disability involving serious difficulty concentrating, remembering or making decisions (9.2%).

The table also shows differences geographically. Compared to metro areas, larger shares of disconnected young adults in rural areas and principal cities come from families with incomes of less than $50,000. Educational attainment appears to play a role in explaining the lower family incomes of rural disconnected young adults than it does in explaining the family incomes of disconnected young adults in cities; 80.2% of disconnected young adults in rural areas have no more than a high school diploma, while two-thirds of disconnected young adults living in cities have no more than a high school diploma. The latter is less than the corresponding estimate of 69.9% for the U.S. as a whole. Rural disconnected young adults are more likely to report a disability.

The share of disconnected young men is similar across the three geographies. However, variation does exist across race and ethnicity. In cities, young Hispanic adults and young Black adults are 36.3% and 25.1% of disconnected young adults, respectively. In rural areas, young white adults are two-thirds (66.6%) of disconnected young adults.

Rationale for Reducing Economic Disconnection among Young Adults

A key economic relationship is that economic growth equals the sum of productivity growth and population growth. When more young adults are engaging with the economy, it reduces their rate of disconnection while increasing productivity, thus affecting economic growth overall.

It could be that reducing disconnection is less a matter of young adults making better choices and more a matter of removing barriers to participation in the economy. Weak job networks, college degree requirements, a lack of transportation, ex-offender status, limited or no access to child care, a lack of accommodation for a disability and discrimination are just a few such barriers that young adults may face.

Investing in disconnected young adults could further their contributions to the current period of U.S. economic growth and better position them for future economic success.

* The linked PDF was replaced with a corrected version on Oct. 30, 2024.

Notes

1. Different terms have been used in the past to describe this group, including “at risk” and “delinquent.” More recently, “opportunity youth” has been adopted because it alludes to the opportunities these young adults have to work and learn and the opportunity for overall economic growth with participation from this group. Another common term for individuals in this group is NEETs, which stands for “not in employment, education or training.  
2. The metro areas are noted in “List 1” of this U.S. Census Bureau document (PDF).
3. The CPS surveys U.S. households and is conducted jointly by the Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. No more than a high school diploma includes those who have not graduated high school.
5. The white, Black and “other” racial groups are those respondents identifying as non-Hispanic. The Hispanic group comprises respondents identifying as Hispanic or Latino regardless of race.