Interest Rates

Interest Rates

  • Negative Interest Rate

    Negative Interest Rates: A Tax in Sheep's Clothing

    Monday, May 02, 2016

    Some central banks are using negative interest rates on reserves to spur lending. But are such moves really taxes in disguise?

  • yield curve

    Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?

    Thursday, March 24, 2016

    A declining spread between yields on long-term and short-term Treasuries doesn’t mean a recession is necessarily on the way. However, over the past 30 years, once the spread turned negative, a recession followed within 12 months.

  • interest rates and liftoff

    Not All Interest Rates May Rise after Liftoff

    Tuesday, February 09, 2016

    When the federal funds rate is expected to rise, longer-term rates are expected to rise as well. But that didn’t happen in the mid-2000s.

  • rate increases and the dollar

    How Do Rate Hikes Affect the Dollar's Exchange Rate?

    Tuesday, February 02, 2016

    Theory holds that increasing interest rates should depreciate the dollar. In reality, that doesn’t seem to happen.

  • inflation rates and interest rates

    Will Real Yields Decline Further if Inflation Rises?

    Thursday, November 05, 2015

    In theory, the real return on money and close substitutes for money should be low when inflation is high and the other way around. But real returns to U.S. Treasury debt have been negative despite low and stable inflation.

  • Effective Federal Funds Rate

    The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight.


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