Tuesday, October 04, 2016
The St. Louis Fed’s Price Pressures Measure, which predicts inflation over the next 12 months, shows a 9 percent chance of inflation above 2.5 percent.
Monday, September 05, 2016
The St. Louis Fed Economic News Index, updated weekly, shows notably stronger real GDP growth in the third quarter than the second quarter rate of 1.1 percent.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
The FOMC seems to be paying attention to consumer surveys about inflation expectations. But how much do consumers know about inflation?
Thursday, August 25, 2016
President James Bullard discusses the thinking behind the St. Louis Fed’s new approach to near-term projections for the U.S. macroeconomy and for the federal funds rate. He also explains how the new approach differs from the old one.
Monday, March 07, 2016
A previous blog post concluded that oil would have to fall to $0 by mid-2019 to validate current breakeven inflation expectations. What happens when assuming smaller nonenergy CPI growth rates?more
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
The price of oil futures and the price of oil implied by breakeven inflation expectations travel very different paths.more
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discusses why he recently dissented on the proposed amendments to the FOMC’s statement on longer-run goals.