Skip to content

Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators

  • great moderation

    Was the Great Moderation Simply on Vacation?

    Monday, September 26, 2016

    Some said increased volatility around the most recent recession was a sign the Great Moderation was over. But was this just a temporary blip instead?

  • inflation surveys and the fomc

    Consumer Surveys, Inflation Expectations and the FOMC

    Tuesday, August 30, 2016

    The FOMC seems to be paying attention to consumer surveys about inflation expectations. But how much do consumers know about inflation?

  • the fed and controlling interest rates

    How Successful Is the Fed at Controlling Interest Rates?

    Monday, July 11, 2016

    Liftoff and the last two rounds of quantitative easing provide a chance to see how effectively the Fed can influence short- and long-term interest rates.

  • gross domestic product and purchasing managers index

    Using PMI to Gauge the U.S.'s and China's Economies

    Monday, April 11, 2016

    The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is widely used to assess the economy, but how closely does it track GDP?

  • projected gdp revised

    Projecting Real GDP Growth for the Next Decade

    Thursday, March 31, 2016

    Real gross domestic product is still well below its prerecession trend. And that gap may widen over the next decade.

  • us current account

    How Has the Current Account of the U.S. Changed?

    Tuesday, March 29, 2016

    The current account of the U.S. has been relatively stable over the past 15 years, but its components have changed considerably.

  • yield curve

    Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?

    Thursday, March 24, 2016

    A declining spread between yields on long-term and short-term Treasuries doesn’t mean a recession is necessarily on the way. However, over the past 30 years, once the spread turned negative, a recession followed within 12 months.

  • GDP

    Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

    Monday, March 21, 2016

    The two measures of output should be equivalent. However, there are often significant differences.

  • us recession

    Is the U.S. Due for Another Recession?

    Monday, February 29, 2016

    The current U.S. expansion has lasted much longer than the average expansion. But other indicators aren’t showing signs of danger.

  • GDP

    The GDP-Jobs Schism Looks to Have Asserted Itself Again in 2015

    Thursday, February 04, 2016

    In 2015, gross domestic product growth fell short of its prerecession trend, while employment grew faster.