Monday, September 26, 2016
Some said increased volatility around the most recent recession was a sign the Great Moderation was over. But was this just a temporary blip instead?
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
The FOMC seems to be paying attention to consumer surveys about inflation expectations. But how much do consumers know about inflation?
Monday, July 11, 2016
Liftoff and the last two rounds of quantitative easing provide a chance to see how effectively the Fed can influence short- and long-term interest rates.
Monday, April 11, 2016
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is widely used to assess the economy, but how closely does it track GDP?
Thursday, March 24, 2016
A declining spread between yields on long-term and short-term Treasuries doesn’t mean a recession is necessarily on the way. However, over the past 30 years, once the spread turned negative, a recession followed within 12 months.
Thursday, February 04, 2016
In 2015, gross domestic product growth fell short of its prerecession trend, while employment grew faster.