September/October 2009

In This Edition

  • Challenges in Macro-Finance Modeling

    This article discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. The author classifies macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models ("internal basis models") and models that have observed macroeconomic variables as state variables ("external basis models") and examines the underlying assumptions behind these models.

  • Do Macroeconomic Announcements Move Inflation Forecasts?

    This paper presents an empirical strategy that bridges the gap between event studies and macroeconomic forecasts based on common-factor models. Event studies examine the response of financial variables to a market-sensitive "surprise" component using a narrow event window.

  • Investment Analysts' Forecasts of Earnings

    The literature on investment analysts' forecasts of firms' earnings and their forecast errors is enormous. This paper summarizes the evidence on the distribution of analysts' forecasts and forecast errors using data for all U.S. firms from 1990 to 2004.

  • Milton Friedman and U.K. Economic Policy: 1938-1979

    Milton Friedman's publications and commentaries became the subject of enormous publicity and scrutiny in the United Kingdom. This paper analyzes the interaction of Milton Friedman and U.K. economic policy from 1938 to 1979.



Keep up with what’s new and noteworthy at the St. Louis Fed. Sign up now to have this free monthly e-newsletter emailed to you.