Bullard on yield curve inversion; the trade deficit; U.S. exports to China; the regional impact of automation; advances among Hispanic women; and more
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discusses the possibility of yield curve inversion, which tends to be a bearish signal for the U.S. economy, and ways it could be avoided.
Civilian aircraft, soybeans, motor vehicles and microchips are the biggest U.S. exports to China, and production of these goods is geographically concentrated. In the case of soybeans, 10 states produced 79 percent of the U.S. crop in 2016.
The Fed has been raising short-term rates. This lifts borrowing costs for everyone, including the U.S. government, but the effect on longer-term Treasury rates is less predictable.
In the U.S., female Hispanic workers surpass male counterparts in education and in high-paying jobs.
In 2017, the District’s farmers grew 19 percent of the country’s soybeans. But China recently imposed a 25 percent tariff on soybeans, creating uncertainties for U.S. growers.
Jobs in the St. Louis Fed’s District face a higher risk of automation than do jobs nation-wide. Smaller MSAs in the District will face bigger impact.
Buoyed by consumption and business fixed investments, U.S. real GDP growth is expected to average close to 3 percent during the second half of 2018, according to professional forecasters.
Dropping commodity prices have caused U.S. farm income to plunge in recent years. Relatively steady farmland prices, however, have helped farmers stay solvent.