The world's output for 2014 is expected to end up being below trend, and the forecast for this year doesn't look much better. Once again, the U.S. is performing better than most other developed countries.
Maria A. Arias, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria
In many ways, the European debt crisis is reminiscent of Latin America's experience in the 1980s, characterized by a period of high growth interrupted by an external shock. But there are some notable differences.
There are at least two main ways to measure "the informal sector" of an economy, both of which entail difficulties. The effort is needed, however, because the underground economy accounts for about 13 percent of GDP in developed countries and almost three times that in developing countries.
Maria E. Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, Yang Liu
Workforce participation has declined among those 16 to 24, but there may be good reasons for this. An analysis by age, gender and education looks at who is in school and who is not.
A question often on people’s minds is whether the unemployment rate is capturing all the relevant information on the health of the labor market these days. Are any of the other standard indicators any better? What do indexes that measure labor market conditions tell us?
James D. Eubanks, David Wiczer
As the unemployment rate declines, many people assume that the average wage in the U.S. will increase. However, the average doesn't move that fast over a single business cycle. And any movement over the long term is more in favor of high-wage earners than low-wage earners.
Kevin L. Kliesen, Lowell R. Ricketts
Following the two latest recessions, the growth in high-paying jobs was stronger, on a percentage basis, than was the growth in low-paying jobs. The opposite happened after the previous two recessions.
There are a few negative developments that bode ill for the U.S. economy this year, but they are probably outweighed by recent positive developments. As a result, GDP growth is likely to be stronger this year than in 2014.
Maximiliano A. Dvorkin, Hannah G. Shell
Income inequality has increased in the St. Louis Fed's District over the past 30 years, although at a slower pace than in the nation as a whole. In both areas, the inequality is increasing primarily between the top-income earners and the middle-income earners.
Charles S. Gascon, Michael A Varley
Home to Walmart and several other large companies, this region has experienced unusually strong growth in population and income over the past half-century. Although the area was not immune to the Great Recession, Northwest Arkansas could be on the verge of another spurt, given that its economy often follows that of the U.S. business cycle, now in an upswing.
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