The Output Gap: A "Potentially" Unreliable Measure of Economic Health?

The output gap is one (of many) economic indicators used by economists to measure the strength of the economy. What exactly is the output gap, and how accurately does it predict the state of the economy? Read this month's Page One Economics Newsletter, "The Output Gap: A 'Potentially' Unreliable Measure of Economic Health," for an explanation of the output gap and answers to these questions.  
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