Staff Pick: Aging Populations May Mean Lower Economic Growth

The On the Economy blog will periodically rerun blog posts that were of particular interest. The following is a post from September 2016 regarding the economic impact of aging populations.

As countries age, through both increases in the elderly population and decreases in the young population, they may face lower economic growth, according to an Economic Synopses essay.

Economist Ana Maria Santacreu first discussed the aging of G-7 countries in a previous blog post. She examined the age-dependency ratio, which is the sum of the young (under 15) and elderly (over 64) populations relative to the working-age (15 to 64) population.

All seven countries saw increases in this ratio in recent years, as the elderly populations have increased while the working-age and young populations have decreased slightly or remained flat. (For figures showing these trends, see the blog post “How Are Populations Shifting within Developed Countries?”)

In her follow-up essay, Santacreu examined potential long-term economic consequences of high age-dependency ratios.

Saving Rates

Santacreu noted that workers tend to save more as they get close to retirement. An increase in savings could, in turn, decrease long-term interest rates. She wrote: “Eventually, as the elderly start retiring and birth rates start decreasing—as appears to be the recent trend—savings would start decreasing and long-term interest rates would rise. Thus, recent demographic changes could affect saving rates and long-term interest rates.”

Investment Rates

Speaking of saving, Santacreu noted that a decrease in savings could mean fewer funds to finance investment projects, which may reduce long-term economic growth.

Housing Markets

When discussing the potential effect on housing, Santacreu cited an article showing that house prices fell by 0.2 percent per year as age-dependency ratios increased in a sample of 10 countries.¹ She wrote: “Because the demographic composition of the labor force contributes strongly to the trend in house prices, fewer young people, together with a large increase in the elderly population, would likely result in less investment in the housing market.”

Consumption Patterns

Santacreu noted that an increase in the elderly population could shift consumption from certain goods to health care services and leisure.

Conclusion

She noted that increasing productivity or increasing the labor force participation of the elderly could potentially offset the effects of an increase in the age-dependency ratio. She wrote: “These economic policies, however, would not reverse the recent demographic trends.”

Notes and References

¹ “Vanishing Workers.” The Economist, July 23, 2016.

Additional Resources

• Economic Synopses: Long-Run Economic Effects of Changes in the Age Dependency Ratio
• On the Economy: An Even Wider Generational Wealth Gap?