Skip to content

Real GDP Projected at 3.6% Annual Rate in Third Quarter

Monday, September 5, 2016

By Kevin Kliesen, Business Economist and Research Officer

The St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index1 predicts that real GDP will increase at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter, according to data through Sept. 2. If realized, this would be substantially stronger than the 1.1 percent annual rate of increase registered in the second quarter, as can be seen in the figure below.

st louis fed economic news index

But if real GDP advances at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter, the economy’s four-quarter growth rate will remain around 1.5 percent. This is about 0.5 percentage points less than its average growth rate registered during the current economic expansion since the second quarter of 2009.

Notes and References

1 For information on index, see the blog post “St. Louis Fed Index Forecasts Bounce Back in Real GDP Growth.” This data series will eventually be available through the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.

Additional Resources

Posted In Inflation  |  Tagged kevin kliesenstlenienigdpgross domestic productnowcasteconomic news index
Commenting Policy: We encourage comments and discussions on our posts, even those that disagree with conclusions, if they are done in a respectful and courteous manner. All comments posted to our blog go through a moderator, so they won't appear immediately after being submitted. We reserve the right to remove or not publish inappropriate comments. This includes, but is not limited to, comments that are:
  • Vulgar, obscene, profane or otherwise disrespectful or discourteous
  • For commercial use, including spam
  • Threatening, harassing or constituting personal attacks
  • Violating copyright or otherwise infringing on third-party rights
  • Off-topic or significantly political
The St. Louis Fed will only respond to comments if we are clarifying a point. Comments are limited to 1,500 characters, so please edit your thinking before posting. While you will retain all of your ownership rights in any comment you submit, posting comments means you grant the St. Louis Fed the royalty-free right, in perpetuity, to use, reproduce, distribute, alter and/or display them, and the St. Louis Fed will be free to use any ideas, concepts, artwork, inventions, developments, suggestions or techniques embodied in your comments for any purpose whatsoever, with or without attribution, and without compensation to you. You will also waive all moral rights you may have in any comment you submit.
comments powered by Disqus

The St. Louis Fed uses Disqus software for the comment functionality on this blog. You can read the Disqus privacy policy. Disqus uses cookies and third party cookies. To learn more about these cookies and how to disable them, please see this article.