|
By Kevin Kliesen, Business Economist and Research Officer
The St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) predicts that real gross domestic product (GDP) will increase at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. The current estimate is modestly less than the previous week’s estimate of 3.9 percent and largely reflects weaker-than-expected data for private housing starts and industrial production in November. (See figure below.)
Several key data used in the ENI will be released this week:
If real GDP advances at a 3.3 percent rate in the fourth quarter, then the U.S. economy will have grown by 2.2 percent this year, modestly stronger than the 1.9 percent gain seen in 2015 (measured on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis).
As noted in a previous On the Economy blog post, the St. Louis Fed’s ENI uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter.1 This simple-to-read index is updated every Friday. Starting in early January, it will be posted regularly on the St. Louis Fed’s FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) database.
1 See Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W. “A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2016, Vol. 98, Issue 4, pp. 277-96. The ENI will not produce forecasts for the major components of GDP, such as real nonresidential fixed investment.
The St. Louis Fed uses Disqus software for the comment functionality on this blog. You can read the Disqus privacy policy. Disqus uses cookies and third party cookies. To learn more about these cookies and how to disable them, please see this article.
Subscribe to
On the Economy
Get notified when new content is available on our On the Economy blog.
About the Blog
The St. Louis Fed On the Economy blog features relevant commentary, analysis, research and data from our economists and other St. Louis Fed experts.
Views expressed are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or of the Federal Reserve System.
Popular Posts
Contact Us
For media-related questions, email mediainquiries@stls.frb.org. For all other blog-related questions or comments, email on-the-economy@stls.frb.org.
Categories
- Vulgar, obscene, profane or otherwise disrespectful or discourteous
- For commercial use, including spam
- Threatening, harassing or constituting personal attacks
- Violating copyright or otherwise infringing on third-party rights
- Off-topic or significantly political
The St. Louis Fed will only respond to comments if we are clarifying a point. Comments are limited to 1,500 characters, so please edit your thinking before posting. While you will retain all of your ownership rights in any comment you submit, posting comments means you grant the St. Louis Fed the royalty-free right, in perpetuity, to use, reproduce, distribute, alter and/or display them, and the St. Louis Fed will be free to use any ideas, concepts, artwork, inventions, developments, suggestions or techniques embodied in your comments for any purpose whatsoever, with or without attribution, and without compensation to you. You will also waive all moral rights you may have in any comment you submit.