St. Louis Fed Releases New Research on Household Debt “Tipping Points”

ST. LOUIS — The Center for Household Financial Stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Private Debt Project of the Governor's Woods Foundation have published new research that was presented at the second “Tipping Points” symposium in June 2017.

The papers, along with an executive summary of the findings, can be found on the Center’s website.

The 2017 papers join those presented at the first Tipping Points symposium, which was held in June 2016.

“While our first symposium, held in June of last year, focused on the micro or household-level effects of household debts, this year’s symposium centered on the macro effects of family debts— specifically, at what point does household debt move from contributing to economic growth to inhibiting growth?” said Center Director Ray Boshara in an executive summary of the conference. “As with last year’s symposium, this year’s research revealed a number of fascinating and sometimes counter-intuitive research findings that we hope will inform future research, private and non-profit practice, and public policy.”

2017 presenters and papers:

• William R. Emmons and Lowell R. Ricketts, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 
  “Household Debt at the Tipping Point: When and Why Does Household Borrowing Hurt the Economy?” (PDF)
  
  
• Moritz Schularick, professor of economics, University of Bonn 
  “The Great American Debt Boom, 1949-2013” (PDF)
  
  
• Marco Jacopo Lombardi, senior economist, Bank for International Settlements 
  “The Real Effects of Household Debt in the Short and Long Run" (PDF)
  
  
• Atif Mian, professor of economics, Princeton University 
  “How Do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s” (PDF)
  
  
• Karen Dynan, professor of practice, Department of Economics, Harvard University; nonresident senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics 
  “The Evolving U.S. Economy and Household Debt” (PDF) | Presentation (PDF)
  
  
• J.W. Mason, assistant professor of economics, John Jay College of Criminal Justice 
  "Income Distribution, Household Debt, and Aggregate Demand: A Critical Assessment" (PDF)
  
  
• Barry Cynamon, visiting scholar, Center for Household Financial Stability, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  
  “Reversing the Tipping Point?” (PDF)

After the conclusion of the 2017 symposia, Emmons, Dynan and Mian were the guest speakers for a World Economic Roundtable presentation on “America’s Recurring Debt Problem: Are We Approaching a New Tipping Point?” moderated by Sherle Schwenninger, World Economic Roundtable founding director.