Please note: Data values previously published are subject to revision. For more information, refer to the vintage series in ALFRED®.
Financial market stress has fallen for the fifth week in a row, according to the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI). For the week ending July 22, the index measured -1.156, down slightly from the previous week’s revised value of -1.144. The index is up slightly from its value a year earlier of -1.182.
Over the past week, eight of the 18 indicators contributed negatively to the change in the index, three fewer than in the previous week. The largest negative contributions were made by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) and the expected inflation rate over the next 10 years (BIR_10yr). Eight of the 18 indicators contributed positively to the weekly change in the index, two more than in the previous week. The two largest positive contributions were made by the difference between the yields on the three-month Libor rate and the three-month overnight index swap rate (LiborOIS_3mo) and by the difference between the yield on the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month Eurodollar rate (TED).
Over the past year, nine of the 18 indicators made a positive contribution to the index, two fewer than in the previous week. Nine indicators made a negative contribution to the index week, two more than in the previous week. The two largest positive contributions over the past year were made by the LiborOIS_3mo and by the BIR_10yr. The two largest negative contributions were made by the yield on Baa-rated corporate bonds (BAA) and by the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI).
For an explanation of the 18 component variables in the STLFSI, refer to the STLFSI Key.
The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together.
How to interpret the index
The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress.
Note that the bar charts plot the change in the contribution from one week to the next or from the current week compared to the value 52 weeks earlier.
FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) is the main economic database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.