Housing Market Conditions Improve Again Across Eighth District

9/18/2014

ST. LOUIS – Housing market conditions continued to improve during the second quarter of 2014 across the seven states that comprise the St. Louis Fed's Eighth District, with mortgage delinquencies declining for the fifth quarter in a row and home values rising, according to the St. Louis Fed’s latest Housing Market Conditions report.

The quarterly report provides a snapshot of housing market conditions in the U.S. and the Eighth District, which covers the states of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee.*  The report also breaks down data for the District’s four main metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): the areas around Little Rock, Ark.; Louisville, Ky.; Memphis, Tenn.;  and St. Louis.

Housing Prices

The report now features CoreLogic Housing Price Index data, which has been added to the existing Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) data to provide a more complete snapshot of current home price conditions.

FHFA

Based on Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data, house prices in all Eighth District states rose during the second quarter of 2014 compared with the first quarter of 2014. This marked the first quarterly increase across all seven states since the third quarter of 2013. Kentucky reported the largest increase of 2.7 percent. Prices also rose on a year-over-year basis, with Tennessee reporting the largest increase of 5.6 percent. Housing prices in all four Eighth District MSAs also rose during the second quarter, both quarter over quarter and year over year. The Louisville MSA reported the largest quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.2 percent, with the Memphis MSA reporting the largest year-over-year increase of 3.7 percent. Of particular note, house prices in the Little Rock MSA have surpassed their pre-recession highs, while the Louisville MSA is on pace to surpass its pre-recession high by next quarter.

CoreLogic

Based on CoreLogic data, housing prices were also up in all Eighth District states on a quarter-over-quarter basis, with Illinois reporting the largest gain of 6.6 percent. Year-over-year, prices were higher in all states except Arkansas, with Tennessee reporting the largest increase of 7 percent and Illinois coming in second at 5.3 percent. In addition, CoreLogic data shows that Tennessee has surpassed its pre-recession house price highs. All four MSAs reported a quarter-over-quarter increase in house prices, with the Memphis MSA showing the largest increase of 6.2 percent, St. Louis close behind at 6 percent, Louisville at 5.4 percent and Little Rock at 1.5 percent. Year-over-year, prices also were higher in all MSAs except Little Rock, which declined 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Memphis and the St. Louis MSAs tied for first place with the largest year-over-year increase of 5.2 percent, with Louisville at 3.7 percent.

Eighth District 2Q 2014 House Price Performance - FHFA

State/MSA
Quarter
over Quarter
Year
over Year
U.S. +1.3% + 6.2%
AR + 0.2% + 1.6%
IL + 1.0% + 4.2%
IN + 0.6% + 3.7%
KY + 2.7% + 3.6%
MO + 0.3% + 3.8%
MS + 1.1% + 3.3%
TN + 1.3% + 5.6%
Little Rock + 0.8% + 1.5%
Louisville + 3.2% + 3.2%
Memphis + 1.7% + 3.7%
St. Louis + 1.6% + 2.0%

 Eighth District 2Q 2014 House Price Performance - CoreLogic

State/MSA
Quarter
over Quarter
Year
over Year
U.S. +3.7% + 7.3%
AR + 2.5% - 0.5%
IL + 6.6% + 5.3%
IN + 4.6% + 3.1%
KY + 4.9% + 2.7%
MO + 5.1% + 4.9%
MS + 4.1% + 3.8%
TN + 5.2% + 7.0%
Little Rock + 1.5% - 1.4%
Louisville + 5.4% +5.2%
Memphis + 6.2% + 5.2%
St. Louis + 6.0% + 5.2%

 

Mortgage Delinquencies

For the fourth quarter in a row, the percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages (delinquent 90 days or more, or in foreclosure) fell in all Eighth District states and its four main MSAs. In Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee, delinquencies fell under the national average of 4.49 percent, while Illinois, Indiana and Mississippi remained above the national average. Meanwhile, the Louisville and St. Louis MSAs remained below the national average, at 4.21 percent and 3.64 percent respectively. The Little Rock and Memphis MSAs remained above the national average, at 5.02 percent and 7.35 percent, respectively.

Eighth District 1Q 2014 Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

State/MSA Percent Seriously
Delinquent
Change in
basis points (bps)
U.S. 4.23% - 26 bps
AR 4.39% - 21 bps
IL 5.09% - 39 bps
IN 4.66% - 23 bps
KY 3.93% - 13 bps
MO 3.09% - 7 bps
MS 6.48% - 13 bps
TN 4.17% - 12 bps
Little Rock 4.82% - 20 bps
Louisville 4.07% - 14 bps
Memphis 7.00% - 35 bps
St. Louis 3.46% - 18 bps

 


* Please note: While the Eighth District is comprised of the entire state of Arkansas and only parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, analysis is conducted on a statewide basis for each state's respective report.

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