ST. LOUIS—The September/October issue of Review, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ bimonthly journal of economic and business issues, is now available at: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/. This issue’s feature articles include:
“Seven Faces of ‘The Peril’”
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discusses the possibility that the U.S. economy may become enmeshed in a Japanese-style deflationary outcome within the next several years and examines seven stories that are told in monetary policy circles regarding this analysis. He emphasizes two main conclusions: (i) The Federal Open Market Committee’s “extended period” language may be increasing the probability of a Japanese-style outcome for the United States and (ii), on balance, the U.S. quantitative easing program offers the best tool to avoid such an outcome.
“The Economic Progress of African Americans in Urban Areas: A Tale of 14 Cities”
Researchers Dan A. Black, Natalia A. Kolesnikova and Lowell J. Taylor examine the economic progress of African American males 25 to 55 years of age in 14 major U.S. cities between 1970 and 2000. Their research finds that significant racial disparities remain in education and labor market outcomes of black and white men.
“Measuring International Trade Policy: A Primer on Trade Restrictiveness Indices”
St. Louis Fed economist Cletus C. Coughlin examines the economic intuition underlying the construction of trade restrictiveness indices. These indices should be valuable tools for economists and policymakers to assess the impact of trade policy on economic and social outcomes and provide useful information for trade negotiations.
“The Geographic Distribution and Characteristics of U.S. Bank Failures, 2007-2010: Do Bank Failures Still Reflect Local Economic Conditions?”
An analysis of bank failures from 2007 to 2010 by researchers David C. Wheelock and Craig P. Aubuchon finds that many banks continue to operate in a small number of markets and remain vulnerable to local economic shocks even though most federal and state branching restrictions were removed more than a decade ago.
“A Survey of Announcement Effects on Foreign Exchange Returns”
Researchers Christopher J. Neely and S. Rubun Dey critically review and evaluate the economic literature of how macroeconomic and policy announcements affect foreign exchange returns.