The Broad, Continuing Rise in Delinquent U.S. Credit Card Debt Revisited

The percentage of people who are delinquent on credit card debt measures the incidence of financial distress among U.S. households, and it is important for understanding how macro shocks affect the economy. In addition, delinquency rates, including credit card delinquency rates, may anticipate recessions and provide insight into future U.S. economic conditions.

With this context in mind, we documented in a May 2024 On the Economy blog post that the rise in U.S. credit card delinquencies at the time was broad across geographies. In this blog post, we demonstrate that the incidence of credit card delinquencies has continued rising in the more recent period. We show that while the incidence varies, the positive trend in the share of people in delinquency is pervasive across geographies and different metrics.

We base our analysis on quarterly data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. We examine two variables—the percentage of people in delinquency and the percentage of debt in delinquency—from the first quarter of 1999 through the first quarter of 2025 for those ages 20 to 64. We begin by defining delinquency as credit card accounts with payments that are late by 30 days or more, but we also look at credit card accounts with payments that are late by 90 days or more.In both cases, we include credit card holders with severe derogatory debt. Severe derogatory debt includes debt that has been charged off by the lender. The 90-day delinquency measure represents a subset of the 30-day delinquency measure. Credit card holders are considered “late” if they haven’t made their minimum payment 31 days after a payment was due. The latter likely captures those in more-severe financial distress.

In addition, we divide U.S. ZIP codes into deciles based on 2019 per capita aggregate gross income, which we derive from IRS individual income tax data. To better understand the broadness of the surge in credit card delinquency, we display data for the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District,Headquartered in St. Louis, the Eighth District covers all of Arkansas, most of Missouri, and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee. the highest-income 10% of ZIP codes and the lowest-income 10% of ZIP codes.

The Increasing Share of Americans Experiencing Credit Card Delinquency

The figure below depicts the percentage of people in each of the four geographies who were 30 days delinquent on credit card payments. This statistic can be seen as describing the share of the population struggling to repay its debt. Delinquency rates are plotted on a logarithmic scale, which makes it easier to compare how they have changed over time despite differences in level.

Percentage of People with Credit Card Debt 30 Days Delinquent

SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax and authors’ calculations.

NOTES: Delinquency is defined as the share of people having credit card accounts with debt that is 30 days or more past due. Data are quarterly and composed of individuals ages 20 to 64. Data are based on a nationally representative, 5% random, anonymous sample of all those with a Social Security number and a credit report. Deciles are based on per capita aggregate gross income in 2019 from individual income tax ZIP code data.

The share of people 30 days delinquent on their credit card debt has trended upward since the first half of 2021, and that trend was widespread among all four geographies we examined. The trend is more notable in the lowest-income 10% of ZIP codes than it is in the highest-income 10% of ZIP codes: From the second quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2025, their delinquency rates grew by 63% and 44%, respectively, in relative terms.

However, the pace of delinquency rate growth has slowed since the start of 2024. The average quarter-over-quarter growth in delinquency rates between the third quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2023 was 3.0% or higher in all four geographies, while the average quarter-over-quarter growth in the more recent period—the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025—was 1.5% or lower.

The Increasing Share of U.S. Credit Card Debt in Delinquency

The following figure shows the percentage of U.S. credit card debt in delinquency. This statistic is most commonly used to describe the incidence on lenders’ balance sheets. This delinquency rate rose in each of the last 10 quarters—since the third quarter of 2022— at the national level. Similarly, it has trended upward during the same period in the Eighth District and in the lowest-income and highest-income deciles of ZIP codes.

Percentage of Credit Card Debt That Is 30 Days Delinquent

SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax and authors’ calculations.

NOTES: Delinquency is defined as the share of credit card debt that is 30 days or more past due. Data are quarterly and composed of individuals ages 20 to 64. Data are based on a nationally representative, 5% random, anonymous sample of all those with a Social Security number and a credit report. Deciles are based on per capita aggregate gross income in 2019 from individual income tax ZIP code data.

In each geography, the share of credit card debt in delinquency largely increased since its last trough. The highest-income 10% of ZIP codes experienced the greatest proportional increase; the delinquency rate for that geography climbed from 4.8% in the second quarter of 2022 to 8.3% in the first quarter of 2025, or 73% in relative terms. The delinquency rate for the lowest-income 10% of ZIP codes increased from 14.9% in the third quarter of 2022 to 22.8% in the first quarter of 2025, or 53% in relative terms.

Americans in More-Severe Financial Distress

So far, we have defined delinquency as a delay in payment 30 days or more past the due date. Do our results remain robust if we focus on those who appear to be in even more-severe financial distress? We answer this question by repeating our analysis on credit card accounts with payments that are late by 90 days or more. The assumption is that those further behind on their payments are facing more-severe financial struggles that prevent them from settling their credit card debt, despite the penalties.

The figure below illustrates the percentage of people with credit card payments that were late by 90 days or more. Our findings using the 90-day measure of delinquency are consistent with our findings using the 30-day measure: The rise in the delinquency rate has been broad and continuing, but the pace of its growth has slowed in the last few quarters.

Percentage of People with Credit Card Debt 90 Days Delinquent

SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax and authors’ calculations.

NOTES: Delinquency is defined as the share of people having credit card accounts with debt that is 90 days or more past due. Data are quarterly and composed of individuals ages 20 to 64. Data are based on a nationally representative, 5% random, anonymous sample of all those with a Social Security number and a credit report. Deciles are based on per capita aggregate gross income in 2019 from individual income tax ZIP code data.

Since the second quarter of 2021, delinquency rates measured this way have increased by at least 40.6% in relative terms across the four geographies we tracked. At the national level, the average quarter-over-quarter growth in the 90-day delinquency rate fell from 3.6% between the third quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2023 to 2.1% between the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.

The following figure displays the percentage of U.S. credit card debt that was 90 days or more past due. Again, our findings using the 90-day delinquency rate were similar to those using the 30-day delinquency rate.

Percentage of Credit Card Debt That Is 90 Days Delinquent

SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax and authors’ calculations.

NOTES: Delinquency is defined as the share of credit card debt that is 90 days or more past due. Data are quarterly and composed of individuals ages 20 to 64. Data are based on a nationally representative, 5% random, anonymous sample of all those with a Social Security number and a credit report. Deciles are based on per capita aggregate gross income in 2019 from individual income tax ZIP code data.

Measured this way, the delinquency rate in the highest-income 10% of ZIP codes climbed from 4.1% at its last trough in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 7.3% in the first quarter of 2025, or 80% in relative terms. In the lowest-income 10% of ZIP codes, the 90-day delinquency rate increased from 12.6% at its last trough in the third quarter of 2022 to 20.1% in the first quarter of 2025, or 59% in relative terms.

Summing Up the Trend in U.S. Credit Card Delinquency

Our blog post investigated several measures of delinquency and found that, overall, the trend of rising credit card delinquency is widespread and continuing, even though the pace of growth has slowed since the beginning of 2024. The present share of credit card debt in delinquency is reaching levels seen in the 2008 global financial crisis, and the share of people in delinquency has surpassed levels from that time. This is surprising, given that the labor market is significantly stronger than it was during the financial crisis.

More research is needed to understand the reasons behind these high delinquency rates, but previous work suggests the unconventional increase in credit scores during the COVID-19 pandemic may play a role in accounting for them.See this analysis of the evolution of credit scores during the COVID-19 pandemic and this study of delinquency among individuals who improved their credit scores during the pandemic.

Notes

1. In both cases, we include credit card holders with severe derogatory debt. Severe derogatory debt includes debt that has been charged off by the lender. The 90-day delinquency measure represents a subset of the 30-day delinquency measure. Credit card holders are considered “late” if they haven’t made their minimum payment 31 days after a payment was due.
2. Headquartered in St. Louis, the Eighth District covers all of Arkansas, most of Missouri, and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.
3. See this analysis of the evolution of credit scores during the COVID-19 pandemic and this study of delinquency among individuals who improved their credit scores during the pandemic.