Who Applies to and Enrolls at Selective Colleges?

December 12, 2024
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Attending college is a fundamental investment in one’s human capital and one of the most effective ways to improve the odds of professional and financial success. In this blog post, I analyze who attends selective colleges for their undergraduate studies, focusing on differences across parental income and standardized test scores.

Identifying Selective Colleges

I restrict my attention to four-year, nonprofit colleges and categorize them into selectivity groups using the Barron’s Selectivity Index.The index, published by Barron’s Profiles of American Colleges, relies on the percentage of applicants admitted to a school to divide colleges into the following six categories: (1) most competitive, (2) highly competitive, (3) very competitive, (4) competitive, (5) less competitive and (6) noncompetitive. I identify highly selective colleges as those in the Barron’s first and second tiers, which extend beyond the Ivy League. Out of 1,763 colleges across all tiers, 186 are considered highly selective, with 55% of those being public. Highly selective colleges enroll 16% of undergraduate students, who come to campus with an average SAT score of 1292 (i.e., those who scored in roughly the top 10%). The remaining 1,577 colleges in the dataset enroll 84% of undergraduate students, are mostly public, and generally charge lower tuition.

Who Enrolls at Selective Colleges?

Using data from the U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics, I look at which students attend selective colleges by parental income and SAT score.Additional details on this methodology will be available in a forthcoming St. Louis Fed working paper co-authored with Yaacov Wittman. Specifically, data are from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 , a nationally representative sample of more than 23,000 ninth graders at 944 high schools tracked through their secondary and postsecondary years.

The first figure below shows the fractions of students who enrolled in any four-year college and in a highly selective college across the parental income distribution. Higher-income students are more likely to attend a selective college than their lower-income peers. The middle figure below shows the fractions of students who enrolled in any four-year college and in a highly selective college by SAT score. Students who scored highly on the SAT are more likely to attend a selective college.

Since parental income and SAT scores are somewhat positively correlated (the correlation coefficient is 0.33), it is useful to focus on how attendance rates differ among top SAT scorers. The third figure below displays the fractions of students in the top three deciles of the SAT score distribution and who enrolled in a highly selective college. Among the best scoring students, those with higher-income parents are more likely to attend a highly selective college. For instance, about 70% of students in the top decile of the SAT score distribution whose parents earn around $200,000 a year enrolled in a selective college, while that fraction drops to less than 40% for students whose parents earn between $35,000 and $55,000.

College Attendance by Selectivity and Parental Income

A line chart shows that the fraction of students enrolled at any four-year college and at highly selective colleges increases steadily as parental income rises. Description is in the text above.

College Attendance by Selectivity and SAT Score Deciles

A line chart shows that the fraction of students enrolled at any four-year college and at highly selective colleges increases with SAT decile. The fraction of students enrolled at selective colleges rises sharply between the eighth and 10h deciles. Description is in the text above.

Attendance at Highly Selective Colleges by Parental Income and Top SAT Score Deciles

A line chart shows that the fraction of students enrolled at highly selective colleges who scored in the eighth, ninth and 10th SAT deciles increases with parental income, especially for students in the 10th SAT decile. Description is in the text above.

SOURCES FOR THE THREE FIGURES: High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 and calculations by Ricardo Marto and Yaacov Wittman.

NOTES FOR THE THREE FIGURES: Parental income reflects 2011 total family income from all sources as reported in the High School Longitudinal Study. The number in parentheses under each decile is its corresponding SAT score.

How Many College Applications Do Students Submit?

Students must apply to college prior to being able to enroll. The next figure shows the average number of applications submitted to four-year colleges across the parental income distribution. Students whose parents earn less than $55,000 a year submit, on average, fewer than two college applications, about half of what their higher-income peers submit. The second figure below depicts the average number of applications by SAT score. Students in the 10th SAT score decile submit an average of five college applications.

Looking at the intersection of parental income and SAT scores reveals minor differences in the number of applications submitted for the top SAT deciles. For students in the 8th and 9th SAT deciles, differences in parental income account for, at most, about one additional application, as shown in the third figure below.

Number of College Applications by Parental Income

A line chart shows that the number of college applications that students submit increases steadily as parental income rises. It then begins increasing sharply at parental incomes above about $235,000. Description is in the text above.

Number of College Applications by SAT Score Deciles

A line chart shows that the number of college applications that students submit increases steadily as SAT decile rises. It then begins increasing sharply in the 10th SAT decile. Description is in the text above.

Number of College Applications by Parental Income and Top SAT Score Deciles

A line chart shows that the number of college applications submitted by students in the eighth, ninth and 10th SAT deciles generally remains steady across parental income levels. Description is in the text above.

SOURCES FOR THE THREE FIGURES: High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 and calculations by Ricardo Marto and Yaacov Wittman.

NOTES FOR THE THREE FIGURES: Parental income reflects 2011 total family income from all sources as reported in the High School Longitudinal Study. The number in parentheses under each decile is its corresponding SAT score.

Who Applies to Selective Colleges?

To understand why high-ability, lower-income students are less likely to enroll in highly selective colleges, I also look at how students apply to those schools. Although there are no major noticeable differences in the number of applications submitted by top students across the parental income distribution, lower-income students tend to apply less to selective colleges.

The first figure below shows the fraction of students who applied to a highly selective college by parental income. Higher-income students are more likely to apply to a highly selective college, while less than 10% of students whose parents earn less than $55,000 do so. The second figure below shows the fraction of students who applied to a selective college by SAT score. Top scorers are more likely to apply to a selective college, with close to 75% of the very top scorers applying to those schools.

The final figure below shows that even among top students, those with lower incomes are less likely to apply to a highly selective college. For instance, close to 90% of students in the top decile of the SAT score distribution whose parents earn around $200,000 apply to a selective college, while only about 65% of students in the same score decile with parents earning less than $55,000 do.

Share of Applications to Selective Colleges by Parental Income

A line chart shows that the fraction of students applying to highly selective colleges increases steadily as parental income rises. Description is in the text above.

Share of Applications to Selective Colleges by SAT Score Deciles

A line chart shows that the fraction of students applying to highly selective colleges increases steadily until about the seventh SAT decile, after which it begins rising more sharply. Description is in the text above.

Share of Applications to Selective Colleges by Parental Income and Top SAT Score Deciles

A line chart shows that the fraction of students applying to highly selective colleges who scored in the eighth, ninth and 10th SAT deciles increases steadily with parental income. Description is in the text above.

SOURCES FOR THE THREE FIGURES: High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 and calculations by Ricardo Marto and Yaacov Wittman.

NOTES FOR THE THREE FIGURES: Parental income reflects 2011 total family income from all sources as reported in the High School Longitudinal Study. The number in parentheses under each decile is its corresponding SAT score.

Takeaways

High-ability, lower-income students are less likely to attend a highly selective college relative to their wealthier peers, partly because they are less likely to apply to such schools. One possible explanation for this difference in application behavior relates to the lack of information about the cost of attendance or the probability of being admitted. Many students report not applying to selective colleges because they are afraid their parents will not be able to afford it, while other students report not applying because they do not expect to be admitted.

Notes

  1. The index, published by Barron’s Profiles of American Colleges, relies on the percentage of applicants admitted to a school to divide colleges into the following six categories: (1) most competitive, (2) highly competitive, (3) very competitive, (4) competitive, (5) less competitive and (6) noncompetitive.
  2. Additional details on this methodology will be available in a forthcoming St. Louis Fed working paper co-authored with Yaacov Wittman.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ricardo Marto

Ricardo Marto is an economist at the St. Louis Fed, which he joined in August 2023. His research focuses on topics in macroeconomics, climate economics, industrial organization and labor economics.

Ricardo Marto

Ricardo Marto is an economist at the St. Louis Fed, which he joined in August 2023. His research focuses on topics in macroeconomics, climate economics, industrial organization and labor economics.

This blog offers commentary, analysis and data from our economists and experts. Views expressed are not necessarily those of the St. Louis Fed or Federal Reserve System.


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