For the First Time in Four Weeks, Financial Market Stress Declines


Please note: Data values previously published are subject to revision. For more information, refer to the vintage series in ALFRED®.

Financial market stress declined in the latest reporting week. For the week ending Jan. 29, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) measured -0.484, down modestly from the previous week’s revised value of -0.343. The decline was the first in four weeks. Over the first five weeks of 2016, the index averaged -0.473, up significantly from its average over the same period last year (-1.093).

STLFSI Weekly Change graph

Over the past week, 14 of the 18 indicators contributed negatively to the weekly change in the index, seven more than the previous week. The two largest negative contributions were made by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) and by the Merrill Lynch Bond Market Volatility Index (Mlynch_BMVI_1mo). Three of the 18 indicators contributed positively to the weekly change in the index, eight fewer than the previous week. The largest positive contribution was made by the yield spread between Baa-rated corporate bonds and the 10-year U.S. Treasury security (Corp_CRS).

STLFSI Yearly Change Graph

Over the past year, 15 of the 18 indicators made a positive contribution to the index and two indicators made a negative contribution. The largest positive contributions over the past year were made by the Merrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Master II Index (Mlynch_HighYld_MasterII) and the yield on Baa-rated corporate bonds (BAA). For the sixth consecutive week, the largest negative contribution over the past year was made by the bond market volatility index (Mlynch_BMVI_1mo).

For an explanation of the 18 component variables in the STLFSI, refer to the STLFSI Key.

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The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI)

Link to STLFSI in FRED

The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together.

How to interpret the index
The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress.

Note that the bar charts plot the change in the contribution from one week to the next or from the current week compared to the value 52 weeks earlier.

More information
For additional information on the STLFSI and its construction, see "Measuring Financial Market Stress" and the related appendix.

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) is the main economic database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.