Financial Market Stress Declines for Third Consecutive Week


Please note: Data values previously published are subject to revision. For more information, refer to the vintage series in ALFRED®.

Financial market stress fell for the third consecutive week, according to the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI). For the week ending Feb. 6, 2015, the STLFSI measured -0.912, down moderately from the previous week’s value of -0.888.  The latest reading is the lowest in five weeks.

STLFSI Weekly Change graph

Over the past week, 10 of the 18 indicators contributed positively to the STLFSI, which was five more than the previous week. The largest positive contribution was made by the Merrill Lynch Bond Market Volatility Index (Mlynch_BMVI_1mo), followed by the yield on corporate Baa-rated bonds (BAA). Six of the 18 indicators contributed negatively to the weekly change in the STLFSI, seven fewer than the previous week. The largest negative contributions were made by the yield spread between the Merrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Master II Index and the 10-year U.S. Treasury security (HighYield_CRS) and by the expected inflation rate over the next 10 years (BIR_10yr).

STLFSI Yearly Change Graph

Over the past year, 10 of the 18 indicators made a positive contribution to the index and eight indicators made a negative contribution. The largest positive contribution over the past year was made by the BIR_10yr, and the largest negative contribution was made by the BAA.

The STLFSI has been below zero for 167 consecutive weeks.

For an explanation of the 18 component variables in the STLFSI, refer to the STLFSI Key.

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The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI)

Link to STLFSI in FRED

The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together.

How to interpret the index
The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress.

Note that the bar charts plot the change in the contribution from one week to the next or from the current week compared to the value 52 weeks earlier.

More information
For additional information on the STLFSI and its construction, see "Measuring Financial Market Stress" and the related appendix.

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) is the main economic database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.