Staying ahead of the Yield Curve

Check back soon for videos from this event, which took place Tuesday, May 22, 2018.

Description: The yield curve is a way to show the difference in the compensation investors are getting for choosing to buy short- or long-term U.S. Treasury debt. On rare occasions, the yield curve inverts: it shows higher interest rates for short-term debt than for long-term debt. An inverted yield curve is sometimes viewed as a predictor of an economic slowdown or recession. Since the Federal Open Market Committee began raising its policy rate in December 2015, the spread between short- and long-term interest rates has narrowed, with the yield curve flattening, but not inverting.

Economist Chris Waller, director of research at the St. Louis Fed, discusses what the yield curve looks like now and what it is telling us. Will long-term rates keep pace with projected increases in the policy rate, given the still-positive outlook for the economy? Or is the yield curve at risk of flattening further?

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