Review

The Local-Spillover Decomposition of an Aggregate Causal Effect

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 10:00:00 -0500

A study of how regional defense spending affects regional income, decomposing government defense spending into a local (direct) effect and a spillover (indirect) effect.

The Determinants of Mortgage Denial

Fri, 22 May 2026 10:00:00 -0500

A technical analysis of over 30 million home purchase mortgage applications from 2018-2024 to identify what determines mortgage denial

Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 10:00:00 -0500

Technical analysis and decomposition of the supply and demand factors behind recent U.S. wage and employment growth

Successful vs. Failed Disinflations: An Event Study

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 10:00:00 -0500

A study of the dynamics of disinflation: successes and failures among 100+ episodes since 1960

U.S. Inflation Inequality between 2010 and 2023

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 10:00:00 -0500

Analysis of households’ uneven experiences and expectations with inflation, which can shape spending, saving, welfare, and monetary policy effectiveness.

Agricultural Employment and the Economic Transition from Malthus to Solow

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 10:00:00 -0600

New analysis shows how a decline in the share of agricultural employment predicts a sustained rise in economic growth.

Real-Time Estimates of Differences in Real Expenditure Growth and Inflation across Households

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 10:00:00 -0600

An analysis of differences in the inflation households face based on their particular basket of goods and services

The Distributional Effects of Bailouts

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 10:00:00 -0600

Analysis of government equity injections to financial institutions that captures essential features of bailout policies during financial crises

Real-Time Discovery of Corporate Risks

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 10:00:00 -0500

A technical analysis on tracking risk-related terms in corporate communication

Measuring Trends in Work from Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 10:30:00 -0500

A technical analysis of the trends in working from home.

Heterogeneity in Work from Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 10:00:00 -0500

A technical analysis of the differences in work-from-home rates by sex, education, state of residence, industry, and firm size.

The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 00:30:00 -0500

An analysis of market-based inflation derivatives to measure investor beliefs about future inflation

Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 10:00:00 -0500

A new measure of where countries are positioned on a geopolitical spectrum between the U.S. and China and how global alliances have shifted

Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve's Perspective on Price Stability

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 08:30:00 -0500

Statements from Federal Reserve leadership since the early 1950s show considerable continuity in policymakers’ perceptions of the benefits of price stability

Optimal Monetary Policy for the Masses

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 10:00:00 -0500

How can monetary policy benefit all households in a world with substantial heterogeneity?

A Journal Ranking Based on Central Bank Citations

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 10:00:00 -0500

What do monetary-policy-minded economists find most relevant for their research? St. Louis Fed economist Christian Zimmermann and co-authors analyze citations in central bank publications to rank the topics

Monetary Policy Implementation with Ample Reserves

Thu, 22 May 2025 11:30:00 -0500

With a sizable balance sheet and excess reserves, the Fed has shifted from reliance on open market operations to paying interest on bank reserves to impose an interest rate floor on the federal funds market

Theodore Roosevelt, the Election of 1912, and the Founding of the Federal Reserve

Fri, 09 May 2025 10:00:00 -0500

The Federal Reserve Act was the result of political and economic compromises that balanced public oversight and political independence. Read how the election of 1912 pushed both Democrats and Republicans toward the ideological center to pass the Act

Risk Management in Monetary Policymaking: The 1994-95 FOMC Tightening Episode

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 10:00:00 -0500

In 1994-95, under the leadership of Chair Alan Greenspan, the FOMC raised the federal funds target rate in response to an anticipated acceleration in inflation rather than an actual acceleration.

The Labor Market Impact of Digital Technologies

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 10:00:00 -0500

This Review article investigates the effects of digital technology on employment patterns in Korea, where firms have rapidly adopted artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing.

The Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Multinationals' Intangible Assets

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 10:00:00 -0500

This article examines the impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which aimed to incentivize firms to keep intangible assets in the U.S. and transfer back ownership of previously shifted technology.

The Economic Effects of a Potential Armed Conflict Over Taiwan

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 10:00:00 -0600

How might a Chinese invasion of Taiwan affect the global economy? Research suggests a flight-to-safety in the asset market and disruptions in international trade, banking, and fiscal policy

After 40 Years, How Representative Are Labor Market Outcomes in the NLSY79?

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 10:00:00 -0600

The Volcker Tightening Cycle: Explaining the 1982 Course Reversal

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 10:00:00 -0600

This article looks back at the monetary policy of the 1980s to analyze the Fed's most famous tightening cycle and the not-so-well-known policy pivot, even while inflation was still high.

Was China's Housing Boom a Bubble?

Fri, 20 Dec 2024 10:00:00 -0600

Was China’s housing growth caused by a bubble or fundamentals? Carlos Garriga and co-authors find evidence fundamentals like income and population growth largely explain China’s house price appreciation, but with substantial differences across cities

Closing Small and "Sufficiently" Large Open Economies with Different Asset Structures

Fri, 06 Dec 2024 10:00:00 -0600

St. Louis Fed economist Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria describes the implications that the size and asset market structure of an economy have for conducting economic research with a model economy.

Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 10:00:00 -0600

Analysis of large language models (LLMs) shows their potential to generate inflation forecasts at least as good as the most respected, but costlier, sources of inflation forecasts.

The Effect of COVID-19 Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 10:00:00 -0600

Immigration plummeted during the pandemic but recovered by Feb 2022, just as labor markets really tightened. Locations and industries with the largest drops in immigration didn't have the largest increases in labor market tightness.

Nominal Wage Adjustments during High Inflation and Tight Labor Markets

Fri, 18 Oct 2024 10:00:00 -0500

Post-pandemic wage increases were higher and more frequent than in past years: In 2020-2023, wages grew at 4.8% per year and consumer prices grew at 4.5%. In 2016-2019, they grew at only 2.8% and 2.1%.

Treasury Debt and Inflation Tax

Tue, 08 Oct 2024 10:00:00 -0500

Unexpected inflation erodes the value of Treasuries, most being held by U.S. households via pensions or mutual funds. This research measures the impact.

The Last Mile

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 15:00:00 -0500

This article is based on the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture delivered by Isabel Schnabel at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 2, 2023.

Real Wage Growth at the Micro Level

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:00:00 -0500

This article investigates patterns in real wage growth in 2022 to determine whether wages have kept up with rising price levels and how this differs among labor market participants.

Policy Instability and the Risk-Return Trade-Off

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 13:00:00 -0500

What is the impact of large swings in economic policy on the risk-return trade-off faced by investors? What is the impact of changes in policy regimes on investment strategies? In this paper, the authors study the impact on returns of switches between periods of market-friendly economic policies and periods of populist policies.

Accounting for the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates through Markup Dynamics

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 11:00:00 -0500

This study investigates how fiscal policy shocks affect the external sector through markup dynamics in advanced and developing economies. The authors focus on the role of markup dynamics as a channel through which fiscal policy has a distinct effect on real exchange rates.

What Is the Monetary Standard? The Fed Should Tell Us

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 23:00:00 -0600

The Federal Reserve System (Fed) is a regular feature in the media. When the Fed communicates with the public, its focus is on forward guidance related to monetary policy, specifically, for achieving low unemployment and low inflation.

Pandemic Labor Force Participation and Net Worth Fluctuations

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 23:00:00 -0600

The US labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2 percent as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 percentage points below its pre-pandemic peak.

Technological Change and Central Banking

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 23:00:00 -0600

The decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) represents a radically new way to manage databases. Since money and payments are all about managing databases and since banks play a central role in money and payments, DAO-based money and payments systems are potentially a disruptive force in the banking system, which includes central banks.

Where Are the Workers? From Great Resignation to Quiet Quitting

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 23:00:00 -0600

To better understand the tight post-pandemic labor market in the US, the authors decompose the decline in aggregate hours worked into extensive margin changes (fewer people working) and intensive margin changes (workers working fewer hours).

An Introduction to Zero-Knowledge Proofs in Blockchains and Economics

Mon, 02 Oct 2023 00:00:00 -0500

The authors shed light on what zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) are and how they improve privacy and efficiency and describe applications for blockchains and other use cases.

Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements

Mon, 02 Oct 2023 00:00:00 -0500

As a matter of arithmetic, the trends of US government debt and deficits will eventually result in an outrageously high government debt-to-GDP ratio. But when exactly will the United States hit the constraint of infeasibility and how exactly will policy adjust to it?

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Inflation: Lessons from Major US Wars

Mon, 02 Oct 2023 00:00:00 -0500

US fiscal and monetary policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have been likened to those often adopted during wars. This article compares macroeconomic policies of the pandemic period with those of major US wars since the Civil War.

Demographic Disparities in COVID-19 Disruptions: What Has Shaped Them?

Mon, 02 Oct 2023 00:00:00 -0500

This article uses the Community Impact Survey implemented by the Federal Reserve System in 2021 to identify COVID-19 disruptions on low- to moderate-income communities.

TFP, Capital Deepening, and Gains from Trade

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Using a dynamic, multicountry model with capital accumulation, the authors compute the exact transition paths for 93 countries following a permanent, uniform, unanticipated trade liberalization and calculate the resulting welfare gains from trade.

COVID-19: Fiscal Implications and Financial Stability in Developing Countries

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 00:00:00 -0500

The COVID-19 pandemic has been unlike any other crisis that we have experienced in that it hit all economies in the world at the same time, compromising the risk-sharing ability of nations. At the onset of the pandemic, the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) jointly pledged 1.16 trillion U.S. dollars to help emerging economies deal with COVID-19.

The Changing Role of Family Income in College Selection and Beyond

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Previous literature has established that the role of family income has grown substantially at predicting college entry decisions when comparing the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (e.g., Belley and Lochner, 2007). In this article, the author examines the changing role of family income as a determinant of college quality choice, degree attainment, and post-schooling earnings.

The Trade-Offs of Counterterrorism Policies

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 00:00:00 -0500

This article provides a modern overview of counterterrorism tools and their trade-offs for curbing terrorist attacks and their consequences. Defensive and proactive countermeasures constitute two main classes of counterterror tools deployed by targeted governments.

Tornado Cash and Blockchain Privacy: A Primer for Economists and Policymakers

Mon, 10 Apr 2023 00:00:00 -0500

This article explores non-custodial crypto asset mixers such as Tornado Cash. The authors analyze what types of mixers exist and how they work, and they discuss opportunities and risks.

Shipping Prices and Import Price Inflation

Mon, 10 Apr 2023 00:00:00 -0500

During the pandemic, there have been unprecedented increases in the cost of shipping goods accompanied by delays and backlogs at the ports. At the same time, import price inflation has reached levels unseen since the early 1980s.

The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World

Mon, 10 Apr 2023 00:00:00 -0500

This article provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock. In 2020, it severely impacted output growth and employment, particularly in middle-income countries.

External Shocks versus Domestic Policies in Emerging Markets

Mon, 10 Apr 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Debt crises in emerging markets have been linked to large fiscal deficits, high inflation rates, and large devaluations. This article studies a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies to understand Argentina's experience during the 2000s commodity boom (2005-2017), following the default of 2001.