On The Economy Blog

Banking Analytics: Banks Experience Asset Growth amid Ongoing Consolidation

Thu, 14 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500

From 2020 to 2025, the number of U.S. banks declined by 13% while average asset size per institution grew by 33% to $5.8 billion.

Declining Birth Rates and Global Population Change

Mon, 11 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500

Learn what the world population would be, and how it would be distributed across low- and high-income countries, if birth rates hadn’t declined for the past 60 years.

Flash Report: Headline Unemployment Steady in April, but Job Separations Rise

Fri, 08 May 2026 17:00:00 -0500

An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force helped keep the April jobless rate stable at 4.3%.

Comparing the FOMC’s Estimate of R-Star with Alternative Estimates

Mon, 04 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500

The neutral real interest rate—also called r-star—is the theoretical rate prevailing when maximum employment and 2% inflation are reached. How is this 'unobservable' rate estimated?

Determinants of Foreign Aid to Ukraine

Fri, 01 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500

This analysis examines a country’s foreign aid to Ukraine relative to the size of its economy for 41 nations, ranging from Iceland to China. Which country provides the most?

Immigrants’ Educational Attainment in the U.S. and Eighth District: An Update

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 04:30:00 -0500

Compared with the native-born population, immigrants to the U.S. are more concentrated at the upper and lower ends of the educational attainment spectrum.

Consumer Credit Health after the 2025 St. Louis Tornado

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0500

Consumer credit conditions, as measured by credit card balances and delinquency, weakened in lower-income areas affected by the May 2025 St. Louis tornado.

Drivers of Population Growth: Natural Increase vs. Net Migration

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 04:30:00 -0500

A nation’s population growth results from natural increase and net migration. But the relative significance of each factor differs based on the country’s income level, as this analysis finds.

Banking Analytics: Uninsured Deposit Ratio Back to Prepandemic Level

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 08:30:00 -0500

The ratio of uninsured deposits to total deposits held by U.S. commercial banks increased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2025, to 43.3%.

Why Does AI Adoption Differ So Much across Countries?

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 11:30:00 -0500

U.S. firms have a higher share of workers using AI than European firms. This analysis finds management practices are a surprisingly powerful predictor of usage.

Banking Analytics: Credit and Debit Card Fees Collected by Banks Rose in 2025

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:30:00 -0500

The interchange, or ‘swipe,’ fees collected by U.S. banks grew to $66 billion in 2025 as debit and credit card purchase volumes and values increased.

America Underbuilt Inc.: The Supply Side of the U.S. Housing Challenge

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:45:00 -0500

This analysis finds that the U.S. has underbuilt housing for decades. The persistent supply shortfall amid growing demand drives today’s affordability crisis.

How Regions Shaped World Population Growth since 1960

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:30:00 -0500

While the global population more than doubled from 1960 to 2020, the growth was unevenly distributed. Two regions accounted for most of that population change.

Flash Report: Fewer Job Separations Drive Decline in March Unemployment

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 16:30:00 -0500

An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected the March jobless rate, which declined to 4.3%.

How Does Immigration Shape Average Labor Productivity? Evidence from the CPS

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500

An analysis suggests changes in workforce composition—particularly foreign-born employment share—have had little effect on U.S. productivity growth since 2023.

Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the U.S.

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500

AI adoption is much higher among American workers than it is among European workers. Is this widening the gap between U.S. and EU productivity growth?

Can AI Optimism Raise Inflation? What a Standard Macro Model Says

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500

This analysis finds optimism about future AI‑driven productivity can quickly lift output and inflation, and the outcome depends on the monetary policy response.

Breakeven Employment Growth: Estimate Range Widens in 2026

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500

Volatile immigration projections create uncertainty in the 2026 breakeven employment growth estimate, which now ranges from 15,000 to 87,000 jobs per month.

Unemployment Insurance Eligibility, Replacement and Takeup Rates across the U.S.

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500

Differences in states’ UI rules create large variations across the U.S. in eligibility, how many of those eligible take benefits, and income that is replaced.

Eighth District Firms Expect Higher Inflation in 2026

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 09:30:00 -0500

A February survey of businesses in the Fed’s Eighth District points to higher inflation expectations for 2026. How do these expectations compare with other forecasts?

Financing R&D Spending: The Role of Corporate Cash Holdings

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 09:15:00 -0500

Firms with higher R&D spending tend to hold more cash. In recent years, as AI investment has increased, R&D intensity has gone up while cash ratios have declined.

Flash Report: February Jobless Data Suggest Low-Hire, Low-Fire Stasis Continues

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 15:30:00 -0600

An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected the February jobless rate, which ticked up to 4.4%.

The Effects of a “Low-Fire, Low-Hire” Economy on Workers

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 09:00:00 -0600

In a 'low-fire, low-hire' economy, underemployment and longer-term unemployment have grown while wage growth has slowed.

The Dual Mandate in Conflict: Balancing Current Tensions between Inflation and Employment

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 11:30:00 -0600

An analysis examines inflation and labor market factors testing both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, as well as FOMC projections for the federal funds rate.

Understanding Statistical Significance in Monthly Unemployment Data

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 08:30:00 -0600

This analysis discusses the importance of understanding unemployment data’s statistical properties when interpreting the jobs report’s monthly results.

The Declining Convenience Yield and Quantitative Tightening

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 09:00:00 -0600

The convenience yield represents the interest investors are willing to forgo for highly liquid securities. How did QT affect the yield on government bonds?

U.S. Import Price Dynamics Following the 2025 Tariffs

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 14:00:00 -0600

This analysis examines how 2025 tariffs affected U.S. import prices because of price changes by existing foreign suppliers and the shift to alternative suppliers in nations with higher price growth.

Tracking Banking Access Using the Bank On National Data Hub

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 09:00:00 -0600

Bank On account openings surpassed 4.8 million in 2024—a 20% increase from 2023—according to data reported by financial institutions to our BOND Hub.

Inflation and the Accuracy of Public Debt Forecasts

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 08:15:00 -0600

An analysis of public debt projections by the CBO examines how forecasting divergences can differ in a high-inflation versus a low-inflation environment.

When Houses Outrun Paychecks: The Lost Decades of Housing Affordability

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 12:30:00 -0600

An analysis of housing and household income data from 2000 to 2023 finds that in most U.S. counties, the cost of buying a house has outpaced local incomes.

Flash Report: January Jobless Data May Signal Improving Labor Market

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 15:20:00 -0600

An analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected January’s jobless rate, which fell to 4.3%.

Do Government Shutdowns Affect Subsequent Data Revisions?

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 09:00:00 -0600

This analysis looks at GDP revisions around U.S. government shutdowns to gauge whether these funding lapses seem to affect the quality of economic data.

Using 211 Data to Gauge Eighth District Economic Conditions

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 08:30:00 -0600

An analysis describes households’ economic health using data on 211 calls for assistance with housing, utilities, food, transportation, health care and disaster relief.

A Look at Recent Developments in the Federal Fiscal Balance

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 10:00:00 -0600

A brief analysis of Treasury data shows a reduced primary deficit last year because of increased tariff revenue and flat government spending.

Beyond Young Adults: How Are Other Groups of U.S. Workers Faring?

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 04:30:00 -0600

An analysis looks at which factors—for example, job openings—might explain recent increases in unemployment for different groups of workers.

The Evolution of Income Differences over the Life Cycle

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 04:30:00 -0600

This analysis finds income differences still grow with age but far less sharply than in the past, as differences have become more front-loaded earlier in the career.

Banking Analytics: Core Deposit Growth Accelerated in 2025

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 08:30:00 -0600

Core deposits accelerated 4% at U.S. commercial banks during the first three quarters of 2025, up from 1.5% during the same period in 2024.

The Shifting U.S. Import Landscape: Recent Changes in Tariffs and Trade

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 10:09:00 -0600

This analysis examines the changes in effective tariff rates and import levels for major U.S. trade partners and types of goods since early 2025.

Why AI Advancements May Push Some Workers Out of the Labor Force

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 12:01:00 -0600

A simple economic model provides a way to think about the potential effects of AI improvements in the long run. These possible effects include making some forms of labor obsolete.

Tracking AI’s Contribution to GDP Growth

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 04:30:00 -0600

This analysis suggests recent investments in AI-related categories have contributed significantly to the real U.S. economic growth in the first nine months of 2025.

Flash Report: U.S. Jobless Rate Ticked Down in December

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 14:50:00 -0600

An analysis looks at December’s unemployment rate, which declined to 4.4%, and payroll employment, which increased by 50,000 jobs.

Banking Analytics: Banks Record Uptick in Unfunded CRE Commitments

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 04:30:00 -0600

As of Sept. 30, U.S. banks have reversed a nine-quarter decline in unfunded commercial real estate commitments with a second consecutive quarter of growth.

What Is Affecting the CPS Data on Shifts in Immigrant and Native-Born Populations?

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 04:30:00 -0600

This analysis suggests that CPS estimates of a sharp drop in the U.S. immigrant population and a surge in the native-born population in 2025 are overstated because of survey limitations.

Sources of Intergenerational Persistence in College Attainment

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 04:30:00 -0600

Financial resources and cognitive and noncognitive abilities may help explain why children tend to achieve levels of education similar to their parents, this analysis suggests.

A Look at U.S. Services Export Trends

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 04:30:00 -0600

An analysis traces the growth of U.S. net exports in the services sector since 1960 and identifies the country’s top services export categories by value.

Revisiting Professional Forecasters’ Past Performance and the Outlook for 2026

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 04:30:00 -0600

So far, the 2025 forecasts have turned out to be rather accurate. For 2026, professional forecasters expect 1.9% GDP growth and a 2.9% increase in the consumer price index.

Flash Report: U.S. Unemployment Rose Moderately in November

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 17:00:00 -0600

An analysis looks at November’s unemployment rate, which rose to 4.6%, and payroll employment, which increased by 64,000 jobs.

Young Adults and the Softening U.S. Labor Market: A Warning Sign?

Mon, 15 Dec 2025 04:30:00 -0600

Fewer job openings in a softening U.S. labor market have disproportionately increased unemployment among young adults—with or without college degrees.

What Are the Characteristics of Banks with Large Unrealized Losses?

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 04:30:00 -0600

An analysis suggests banks with significant exposure to unrealized bond losses rely more on deposits, hold less-liquid assets and have smaller capital buffers.

Community Banking Conference Spotlights Research on Bank Failures

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 04:30:00 -0600

Learn about research, particularly around bank failures’ effects on businesses and the economy, presented at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference.