https://www.stlouisfed.org/rss/page%20resources/publications/blog-entriesFeatures relevant commentary, analysis, research and data from our economists and other St. Louis Fed experts.en{1572E09C-CF8A-4AD4-B880-F99ED67EB52F}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/tariff-effects-inflation-stabilize-recent-monthsThe upward pressure that tariffs exert on U.S. inflation appears to have moderated in the first half of 2026, according to new estimates of effective tariffs and pass-through.Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:30:00 -0500{14B761AB-6E7D-40FC-9EE1-619656512DCE}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/when-oil-prices-drop-why-do-gasoline-prices-stay-elevatedWhy do gasoline prices rise quickly but fall slowly when oil prices drop? Learn the economics behind the “rockets and feathers” effect on pump prices.Tue, 11 Aug 2026 04:30:00 -0500{8DD33D4B-9102-4B05-874B-673E063617DD}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/flash-report-unemployment-payrolls-both-drop-in-julyAn analysis shows how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force combined to push the jobless rate lower in July, to 4.1%.Fri, 07 Aug 2026 15:18:00 -0500{B6CE4103-AE34-45C6-ABC2-B129BE758A64}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/what-is-behind-sharp-drop-labor-force-participationIn the first half of 2026, the falling labor force participation rate was mostly due to a statistical correction and an aging population. But a sharp drop in prime-age workers also occurred.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 04:30:00 -0500{3B04C51F-3865-4AEA-9BA1-F76ECB9997CE}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/ai-productivity-what-firms-say-earnings-callsThe way firms discuss productivity improvements on earnings calls increasingly involves references to AI, even if its effects aren’t clear in aggregate data.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:30:00 -0500{36FF8B73-B702-4FC6-82F0-EFA43FFD5688}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/banking-analytics-agricultural-lending-community-banks-remained-strong-q1The value of outstanding agricultural loans at U.S. community banks stood at $162.6 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2026, up 4.6% from a year ago.Thu, 30 Jul 2026 04:30:00 -0500{EB822346-9CC1-4C42-8A00-7B232E2C46C9}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/oil-prices-container-shipping-costsOil-price shocks are also fuel- and shipping-cost shocks, but their effect can vary depending on a containership’s age, size and how long it spends at sea.Fri, 17 Jul 2026 04:30:00 -0500{42C8613A-948C-4FC0-BD25-52EC8118A47A}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/new-survey-findings-ai-adoption-eighth-districtSurvey data show how firms across the Fed’s Eighth District are using AI to boost efficiency and expand capacity—plus what’s holding back nonadopters.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 04:30:00 -0500{7949A823-A3E1-4E30-BF2B-0EAE23FBCFFC}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/between-headline-core-inflation-excluding-energy-goodsEconomists often use price indexes that exclude food and energy prices in order to get a better sense of underlying inflation. This blog post looks at an alternative measure.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 04:30:00 -0500{C65E0F14-5279-40DC-A5C5-3FAA8DA5BF49}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/how-are-disconnected-young-adults-spending-their-timeAn analysis of survey data on young adults who aren’t working or in school suggests constraints on how they can allocate their time rather than inactivity.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 04:30:00 -0500{83D4EE0D-02F3-430B-A91E-6D85216A250A}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/guiding-monetary-policy-productivity-boom-evidence-1990sThis post examines how the IT-driven productivity boom affected the U.S. economy and shaped the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions in the 1990s.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 04:30:00 -0500{5FC63D27-9FFC-4759-BE70-59C198A36DC6}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/banking-analytics-allowance-credit-losses-remain-stable-us-banksThe ACL coverage ratio, which was stable at 1.66% for U.S. banks in the first quarter of 2026, offers insight about the risk in banks’ loan portfolios.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 04:30:00 -0500{66D22BA4-F0C2-48D8-BD79-0B3473945928}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/flash-report-unemployment-falls-job-growth-slows-in-juneOur analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force combined to push the jobless rate lower in June, to 4.2%.Thu, 02 Jul 2026 15:00:00 -0500{D3E731BC-FF68-4A66-84EC-FECD4B62F03A}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/how-shifts-labor-supply-demand-shape-outcomes-young-workersFewer job openings and AI-related job demand have contributed to weaker labor market conditions for young workers, especially recent college graduates.Tue, 30 Jun 2026 04:30:00 -0500{1882D208-CF4F-45F4-97DB-A6EC90563125}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/banking-analytics-us-banks-increase-treasury-securities-holdingsU.S. banks’ net interest margin declined to 3.22% in the first quarter of 2026 from 3.30% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Learn what’s behind the decrease.Thu, 25 Jun 2026 04:30:00 -0500{1D096883-C9F8-409E-8F4F-8F2B45E85762}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/mortgage-borrower-who-can-not-fail-one-who-can-not-winWhy do first-time buyers face higher mortgage denial rates than those buying a second house? This analysis examines the structural market forces that shape access to credit.Tue, 23 Jun 2026 04:30:00 -0500{D32CA91C-969D-4944-BDA9-5064CEA6F6FB}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/its-still-business-cycle-young-adult-workers-low-hire-low-fire-labor-marketA look at job openings, employment-to-population ratios and other metrics helps quantify the impact of a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ labor market on young workers.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 04:30:00 -0500{7A81234C-0C80-47DF-B445-2E2055798271}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/banking-analytics-lower-asset-yields-squeeze-bank-interest-marginsU.S. banks’ net interest margin declined to 3.22% in the first quarter of 2026 from 3.30% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Learn what’s behind the decrease.Thu, 18 Jun 2026 04:30:00 -0500{D111F20C-11AD-4DE9-91B5-F6D4C80B52DD}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/declining-fertility-rates-across-worldThe average number of births per woman—one factor affecting population growth—has been declining among both high-income and low-income countries for several decades.Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:00:00 -0500{27397F0D-726C-409C-88D2-E74093EF1CAC}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/flash-report-may-unemployment-job-gains-signal-steady-labor-marketChanges in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force combined to again keep the jobless rate steady at 4.3% in May.Fri, 05 Jun 2026 15:30:00 -0500{8676092F-2DA5-4CD6-852C-DB004DE15189}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/what-30-million-applications-reveal-mortgage-denial-thresholdsA debt-to-income ratio of 43% was long considered to be a threshold for mortgage applicants. This analysis finds the true threshold is 50%.Thu, 04 Jun 2026 04:30:00 -0500{50457DDF-23A0-4788-82B3-D371207BCF39}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/tracking-shift-mortgage-refinancings-helocsHELOC use has surged broadly in recent years as homeowners seeking liquidity have pursued alternatives to refinancing low fixed-rate mortgages.Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:30:00 -0500{416B196D-2B5B-446D-A0D1-76D1C6E16E22}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jun/measuring-ai-adoption-firms-how-you-ask-mattersWorker-based surveys find higher rates of AI adoption in the U.S. than in Europe. Yet firm-level surveys reveal the opposite. What is behind this difference?Mon, 01 Jun 2026 04:30:00 -0500{1E091FE4-5D66-4599-8986-761C2B3A48FF}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/impact-rising-interest-rates-mortgage-borrowingDenials moved closely with rising U.S. mortgage rates in 2022 and 2023, showing higher borrowing costs—not weaker applicants—drove the increased rejections.Thu, 28 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500{37131334-EF80-4F1C-8B1F-6C81942A1C4E}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/how-trade-policy-is-changing-broad-rules-targeted-restrictionsThe number of export-related trade restrictions globally has risen since 2015, especially policies structured to target specific sectors and technologies.Tue, 26 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500{2ADB1BF4-8DEC-4B4E-AEB3-857C86856001}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/geography-startup-surge-pandemicAfter declining from high levels in the late 1970s, the firm startup rate began to rise in the 2010s, with a shift toward larger cities. Did this trend change during the COVID-19 pandemic?Thu, 21 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500{696FBAE0-09AE-4F7C-A7C5-29F29285C268}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/1776-economics-governmentThis analysis traces the evolution of theory on government’s role in the economy over the past 250 years, from Adam Smith to Alfred Marshall to Paul Samuelson.Tue, 19 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500{E1EB827F-E115-4131-A2CF-7A6CB972DBE4}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/banking-analytics-banks-experience-asset-growth-ongoing-consolidationFrom 2020 to 2025, the number of U.S. banks declined by 13% while average asset size per institution grew by 33% to $5.8 billion.Thu, 14 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500{7C02BABA-3835-4260-87AE-EF9DA7989A59}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/declining-birth-rates-global-population-changeLearn what the world population would be, and how it would be distributed across low- and high-income countries, if birth rates hadn’t declined for the past 60 years.Mon, 11 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500{F6DE74B9-25CF-4A1B-93A7-F02A6A7BDF13}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/flash-report-headline-unemployment-steady-april-job-separations-riseAn analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force helped keep the April jobless rate stable at 4.3%.Fri, 08 May 2026 17:00:00 -0500{EC270084-02B2-44EA-8CB2-92050D3F5D79}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/comparing-fomc-estimate-r-star-alternative-estimatesThe neutral real interest rate—also called r-star—is the theoretical rate prevailing when maximum employment and 2% inflation are reached. How is this 'unobservable' rate estimated?Mon, 04 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500{62493AAD-EAAC-4300-B399-317816CFFECF}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/may/determinants-foreign-aid-ukraineThis analysis examines a country’s foreign aid to Ukraine relative to the size of its economy for 41 nations, ranging from Iceland to China. Which country provides the most?Fri, 01 May 2026 04:30:00 -0500{1D2F0B5F-415D-46CA-A189-339AE3012F8E}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/immigrants-educational-attainment-us-eighth-district-updateCompared with the native-born population, immigrants to the U.S. are more concentrated at the upper and lower ends of the educational attainment spectrum.Thu, 30 Apr 2026 04:30:00 -0500{B8421478-F06D-4BB9-A4CD-76F65BE9A6F6}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/consumer-credit-health-after-2025-st-louis-tornadoConsumer credit conditions, as measured by credit card balances and delinquency, weakened in lower-income areas affected by the May 2025 St. Louis tornado.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0500{E6B1104A-984C-4AA1-894B-D5442C19C8AA}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/drivers-population-growth-natural-increase-net-migrationA nation’s population growth results from natural increase and net migration. But the relative significance of each factor differs based on the country’s income level, as this analysis finds.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 04:30:00 -0500{FC91E801-3F3C-4478-816D-9EE66E877A92}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/banking-analytics-uninsured-deposit-ratio-back-prepandemic-levelThe ratio of uninsured deposits to total deposits held by U.S. commercial banks increased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2025, to 43.3%.Fri, 17 Apr 2026 08:30:00 -0500{A3D5A53D-DB2C-431F-B4A0-7798C53FC67F}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/why-does-ai-adoption-differ-so-much-countriesU.S. firms have a higher share of workers using AI than European firms. This analysis finds management practices are a surprisingly powerful predictor of usage.Tue, 14 Apr 2026 11:30:00 -0500{8C6DE9CB-D613-4EBA-A498-18D4F098343B}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/banking-analytics-credit-debit-card-fees-collected-banks-rose-2025The interchange, or ‘swipe,’ fees collected by U.S. banks grew to $66 billion in 2025 as debit and credit card purchase volumes and values increased.Thu, 09 Apr 2026 04:30:00 -0500{03FFF3C8-8AEF-4E0B-B866-5638E7F7A0D5}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/supply-side-of-us-housing-challengeThis analysis finds that the U.S. has underbuilt housing for decades. The persistent supply shortfall amid growing demand drives today’s affordability crisis.Wed, 08 Apr 2026 11:45:00 -0500{72CAB11A-06E3-415D-B5DC-430E6DEAACE0}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/how-regions-shaped-world-population-growth-1960While the global population more than doubled from 1960 to 2020, the growth was unevenly distributed. Two regions accounted for most of that population change.Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:30:00 -0500{B6B3BB3F-F526-4C57-8F10-F133E113CEDD}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/flash-report-fewer-job-separations-drive-decline-march-unemploymentAn analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected the March jobless rate, which declined to 4.3%.Fri, 03 Apr 2026 16:30:00 -0500{F8129357-EB4B-45B3-96E3-A346EA2BDD9D}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/how-does-immigration-shape-average-labor-productivity-evidence-cpsAn analysis suggests changes in workforce composition—particularly foreign-born employment share—have had little effect on U.S. productivity growth since 2023.Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500{D9852778-BE17-45EA-8854-B161617D0504}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/mind-gap-ai-adoption-europe-usAI adoption is much higher among American workers than it is among European workers. Is this widening the gap between U.S. and EU productivity growth?Mon, 30 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500{B23DB37C-6D40-455B-BAB2-D765CD1F1BF3}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/can-ai-optimism-raise-inflation-what-standard-macro-model-saysThis analysis finds optimism about future AI‑driven productivity can quickly lift output and inflation, and the outcome depends on the monetary policy response.Thu, 26 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500{A2F01C3B-E956-4443-8849-95542AEAEF01}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/breakeven-employment-growth-estimate-range-widens-2026Volatile immigration projections create uncertainty in the 2026 breakeven employment growth estimate, which now ranges from 15,000 to 87,000 jobs per month.Tue, 24 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500{37AA3FD7-E2AE-4F3B-83A8-255AA6EA61BA}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/unemployment-insurance-eligibility-replacement-takeup-rates-usDifferences in states’ UI rules create large variations across the U.S. in eligibility, how many of those eligible take benefits, and income that is replaced.Mon, 23 Mar 2026 04:30:00 -0500{060C5118-C8D6-4C01-BDB5-714E6DFEE62F}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/eighth-district-firms-expect-higher-inflation-2026A February survey of businesses in the Fed’s Eighth District points to higher inflation expectations for 2026. How do these expectations compare with other forecasts?Fri, 20 Mar 2026 09:30:00 -0500{B7A1024A-B176-476A-9750-2C727E23F233}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/financing-rd-spending-role-corporate-cash-holdingsFirms with higher R&D spending tend to hold more cash. In recent years, as AI investment has increased, R&D intensity has gone up while cash ratios have declined.Thu, 12 Mar 2026 09:15:00 -0500{823E66EF-F820-41BD-9EB2-FA33F92ED5BC}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/flash-report-february-jobless-data-suggest-low-hire-low-fire-stasis-continuesAn analysis breaks down how changes in people moving into and out of unemployment and the labor force affected the February jobless rate, which ticked up to 4.4%.Fri, 06 Mar 2026 15:30:00 -0600{DD245EB7-A0D5-49F2-BF87-6C5C6052869E}https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/effects-low-fire-low-hire-economy-workersIn a 'low-fire, low-hire' economy, underemployment and longer-term unemployment have grown while wage growth has slowed.Thu, 05 Mar 2026 09:00:00 -0600