The Great Recession set in motion numerous adverse repercussions, with damage to household balance sheets being especially pronounced. As reported by the St. Louis Fed's Bill Emmons and Bryan Noeth in a recent study, household wealth declined nearly $17 trillion in inflation-adjusted terms, or 26 percent, from mid-2007 to early 2009, with only about two-fifths of that loss recovered by early 2012. Emmons and Noeth found that wealth losses hit older, wealthier Americans (who had the most to lose) the hardest in terms of absolute dollars but affected younger, less educated and minority households the most in terms of percentage.
Not surprisingly, the adjustments required by the damage to household balance sheets are ongoing and are likely to take years to complete. In fact, this is the first U.S. recession in which household "deleveraging"—the slow, painful process of families paying down their debts and rebuilding their savings—has played a key role. Steep declines in housing prices, along with historically high levels of household debt before the crash, made this recession particularly severe. The International Monetary Fund recently reported that “housing busts preceded by larger run-ups in gross household debt are associated with significantly larger contractions in economic activity.
The unprecedented debt overhang leaves the Federal Reserve with a seemingly paradoxical policy, at least with respect to many households: Monetary policy has kept interest rates low to encourage borrowing in the context of an economy with too much borrowing. As Fed policymakers continue to work through this paradox, a clear challenge remains to define mechanisms whereby Americans, especially low- and moderate-income Americans, can rebuild their balance sheets, which will help both struggling families and the stagnant economy move forward. Too many Americans were unbanked or underbanked, too many did not save enough, too many ran up their debts or accumulated risky debt, and too many did not diversify their assets beyond housing. How can we turn each of these balance sheet failures around? How can we help families consider their entire balance sheet?
To help meet these challenges, the St. Louis Fed has begun the Household Financial Stability research initiative, which focuses on three key questions:
Many in the Federal Reserve System have been studying family balance sheets for years. What we hope to offer is a broad conceptual framework, a common table where those throughout the System and beyond learn and work together. We plan to publish research offering new perspectives on balance sheets and why they matter. See www.stlouisfed.org/household-financial-stability for full details on the initiative’s team, In the Balance publication, research and other activities.
As we continue to recover from the economic crisis, we are challenged to innovate and to think about new ways to help American families and the U.S. economy thrive. We are excited about the contribution that our new Household Financial Stability research initiative can make to this important challenge.