Beyond Young Adults: How Are Other Groups of U.S. Workers Faring?

As the U.S. labor market cools, some workers are feeling the pinch more than others, and it’s not just young adults. Looking across recent data, we see that people with a disability, Black and Latino adults, and adults who have no more than a high school diploma, among others, are experiencing unemployment rates that rise faster than the national average when job openings decline. Understanding the experiences of these workers provides an early indication of the broader labor market’s path.

Why Look Beyond Young Adults?

Our previous blog post showed that young adults (18- to 24-year-olds) are highly sensitive to changes in job openings, and their jobless rate remains elevated even when the overall labor market is at its peak strength. Other groups of workers, however, have similar employment patterns. For example, when overall unemployment was 3.4% in April 2023, the height of the tight labor market that began in March 2022, unemployment was:

• 8.7% for Native Americans
• 6.4% for people with a disability
• 4.9% for Black men and 4.0% for Latino men
• 4.8% for adults with no more than a high school diploma
• 8.3% (the 2023 annual average) for single mothers with children under age 3

The difference between unemployment for these groups of workers and overall unemployment signals the presence of structural barriers (e.g., job search inefficiencies and frictions) that make it harder to match workers to job opportunities.

What Might Explain Unemployment Differences?

Several factors tend to compound the challenges for various groups of workers:

• Geography: Economically vulnerable workers are often concentrated in regions with fewer job opportunities.
• Education and experience gaps: Less formal education and fewer opportunities for on-the-job training can limit access to stable, well-paying jobs.
• Household and family structure: Caring for children, especially young children, may constrain parents’ ability to be in the labor force.
• Discrimination: Persistent barriers in hiring, retention and promotion continue to affect employment outcomes.

Visualizing Job Search Frictions

Job search frictions show up in the Beveridge curve, which plots the relationship between job openings and unemployment. For some groups of workers, as the following figure illustrates, the curve tends to lie farther from the origin (the point where the x-axis and y-axis meet) than for other groups, indicating greater difficulty translating openings into jobs.

Predicted Beveridge Curves for Selected Groups of Workers: April 2023-August 2025

SOURCES: Current Population Survey microdata, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data and authors’ calculations.

When job openings fall, unemployment rises nearly across the board, but the increase tends to be greater for some groups of workers, indicating greater friction in the job-matching process.

What Is Driving Recent Increases in Unemployment?

Between April 2023 and August 2025, unemployment increased across many groups of workers. Our regression analysis on Current Population Survey microdata points to one primary driver: declines in job openings. We find that job openings, a proxy for labor demand, explain the largest share of the increase in unemployment across all groups.

Other factors—such as shifts in manufacturing employment, changes in the foreign-born population and fluctuations in the share of women in federal jobs—played smaller roles over the same period. Declines in manufacturing jobs reduced unemployment, likely reflecting labor market exits. Declines in the foreign-born population were associated with higher joblessness for some groups (Black women and Latino adults) and lower joblessness for others (Black men, Asian men and Native Americans). The latter, like the effects from manufacturing employment, may reflect labor market exits.

In the shorter period from January 2025 to August 2025, the average increase in unemployment was modest. During this period, the decline in job openings was sufficient to account for the overall increase in unemployment, with other factors contributing little on net. For certain groups (e.g., Black women), unemployment increased by more than these drivers could explain, suggesting additional frictions, such as child care access, transportation needs or sector-specific demand shifts.

Why Does This Matter for Policy?

Economically vulnerable workers’ experiences often function as early warning signals for the health of the overall labor market. When job openings retreat, unemployment rises fastest among groups already facing job search frictions. If labor demand continues to cool, the patterns described here could worsen or broaden.

Policy responses that reduce job search frictions could help cushion these workers against cyclical softening and strengthen their labor market resilience.

The Bottom Line

The U.S. labor market, particularly over the past 12 months, has been shaped by several forces: decreases in job openings, reductions in the share of the foreign-born population, and declines in federal and manufacturing employment. Our analysis shows that from April 2023 to August 2025, a decline in labor demand, reflected in fewer job openings, accounts for the largest share of the rise in unemployment.

While unemployment generally rises as job openings decline, this increase is not even across the workforce. For people with disabilities, nonenrolled young adults and workers with less education, the increase in unemployment is larger and faster. Tracking these groups provides a more robust picture of labor market health.