Comparing U.S. and St. Louis Foreign-Born Population Changes

In this blog post, we look at the evolution of the foreign-born population shares of the U.S. and of the St. Louis metropolitan statistical area (MSA)—the largest metro area in the Eighth Federal Reserve District.Headquartered in St. Louis, the Eighth District covers all of Arkansas, most of Missouri, and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.

First, using information from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, we trace the foreign-born shares of the population for the nation and the St. Louis MSA between 2005, the first year for which these data are available at the MSA level, and 2024, the most recent year for which there are data.

Second, we determine the top five origin nations of foreign-born residents in the U.S. during this period and present the shares of the population from those nations with and without Mexico. Mexico is an outlier in terms of volume of immigration into the U.S., so leaving out Mexico allows a clearer comparison of the other four top origin nations.

Finally, we identify the top five origin nations of foreign-born residents in the St. Louis MSA and examine the change in foreign-born shares from these nations between 2005 and 2024.

U.S. Foreign-Born Population Shares Are Higher than in the St. Louis MSA

The first figure below shows that the U.S. foreign-born population share steadily increased from 13.1% in 2005 to 15.9% in 2024, except for a modest dip during the COVID‑19 recession of 2020.The COVID-19 recession began in February 2020 and ended in April 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The St. Louis MSA had a much lower share of foreign-born residents compared with the nation over the entire period and saw an increase from 4.9% in 2005 to 6.3% in 2024.

Interestingly, the increase in the foreign-born population share over the period was more uneven for St. Louis compared with the nation, with a noticeable dip in the 2011-12 period and a relatively sharp increase between 2022 and 2023.

Top 5 Origin Nations for the U.S.

Measured in terms of highest average number of foreign-born residents over the entire period, the top five origin nations for the U.S. are Mexico, India, the Philippines, China and El Salvador.

The next figure shows that Mexico has been, by far, the largest origin nation, with a 3.4% share of U.S. residents in 2024; the other four nations’ shares were all below 1%. However, the share of U.S. foreign-born from Mexico had declined from a high of 3.9% in 2007. This decline was most prominent between the 2007‑09 Great RecessionThe Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. and the COVID‑19 recession, with an uptick in the share between 2020 and 2024.

The next figure presents the origin-nation data excluding Mexico to show a clearer picture of the evolution of population shares for the other four nations. In recent years, India and China have overtaken the Philippines, which was the second-largest origin nation (after Mexico) until 2012. India and China both show relatively strong upward trends, with India’s share increasing more rapidly than China’s following the COVID‑19 recession. Although the Philippines’ and El Salvador’s shares also grew, the increases were more modest than India’s and China’s.

Top 5 Origin Nations for the St. Louis MSA

As in the nation, foreign-born from India and China have grown markedly in terms of their shares of the St. Louis MSA’s population, with India the largest origin nation in 2024 and China the third largest after India and Mexico. (See the last figure.) But the St. Louis MSA shows distinct differences from the nation as a whole:

• Mexico is not the top origin nation in some of the years, including 2024.
• Mexico’s foreign-born population share in the St. Louis MSA does not demonstrate a downward trend in the 2005-24 period. Mexico’s 2023 share of 0.67% for the St. Louis MSA is identical to the 2010 peak.
• Germany and Bosnia were in the top five origin countries for foreign-born in the St. Louis MSA, replacing the Philippines and El Salvador, which appeared in the top five for the U.S. as a whole.

Conclusion

Examining foreign-born population shares for the nation and for the St. Louis MSA reveals some interesting differences as well as similarities. Relative to the nation, the St. Louis metro area had significantly lower foreign-born shares over the entire period of our analysis. While Mexico is by far the largest origin nation for foreign-born people in the U.S. overall, this is not true for the St. Louis MSA in several years of the 2005-24 period. On the other hand, both the nation and the St. Louis MSA show increasing shares of foreign-born in the population, with India and China being prominent origin nations in recent years.

Notes

1. Headquartered in St. Louis, the Eighth District covers all of Arkansas, most of Missouri, and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.
2. The COVID-19 recession began in February 2020 and ended in April 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
3. The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.