Consumer Credit Health after the 2025 St. Louis Tornado

Editor’s Note: Parts of this blog post were updated on April 30, 2026, to more fully describe the observations about potential connections between the May 2025 tornado and changes in local credit conditions. (See Endnote 2.)

On May 16, 2025, a tornado, with winds up to 152 mph, brought severe damage to the St. Louis area. The tornado was on the ground for 23 miles, touching down in Clayton, Mo., and moving northeast until lifting in Edwardsville, Ill. In the city of St. Louis, the tornado killed five people, injured 38 others, damaged or destroyed more than 5,000 buildings and caused an estimated $1.6 billion in damage.For a detailed account of the storm, see “The May 16, 2025, St. Louis Tornado” from the National Weather Service.

To help inform recovery efforts, this blog post provides a look at economic patterns observed in tornado-affected communities in Missouri and Illinois, with a focus on consumer credit health.This blog post provides a descriptive analysis of economic patterns after the May 2025 tornado. The observed decline in credit health should not be interpreted as a direct result of the tornado; other factors may have played a role.

A May 2025 tornado carved a 23-mile path through the St. Louis area. Points of various colors and shapes mark instances of reported damage by severity.

Credit: NOAA/NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

The Role of Consumer Credit in a Disaster

Disaster victims often face unforeseen and sizable expenses—home repairs, for example—and potential disruptions in wages. After a disaster, the demand for consumer credit, especially via credit card, increases as those affected try to address financial needs.

Research has found lower-income individuals tend to have less savings, more wage volatility, and under- or uninsured homes or apartments, which can make them less financially stable. After a disaster, these individuals are more likely to experience lower credit scores and higher delinquency, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates than upper-income families, who can rely on loans, savings and insurance.See, for example, Brigitte Roth Tran and Tamara Lynn Sheldon’s December 2017 paper, “Same Storm, Different Disasters: Consumer Credit Access, Income Inequality, and Natural Disaster Recovery”; and Caroline Ratcliffe, William Congdon, Daniel Teles, Alexandra Stanczyk and Carlos Martín’s November 2020 article in the Journal of Housing Research, “From Bad to Worse: Natural Disasters and Financial Health.”

Examining Consumer Credit Health

An analysis of New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel data from the first quarter of 2024 through the fourth quarter of 2025 found that while most indicators of consumer credit health remained stable after the May 2025 St. Louis tornado, two leading indicators of financial distress—average credit card balance and delinquent credit card debt—ticked upward, especially in the area’s low- and moderate-income communities hit by the tornado.

The analysis includes adults with a credit report and a Social Security number living in census tracts affected by the tornado and census tracts unaffected by the tornado.There are several low- and moderate-income areas in the city of St. Louis where 20% or more of adults do not have a credit score. These adults are not reflected in the analysis. The affected census tracts are in Missouri or Illinois and had minor (EF0) to severe (EF3) damage from the tornado as documented by the National Weather Service. The unaffected census tracts—also located in Missouri or Illinois—had no damage but similar characteristics to the affected census tracts, including total population, unemployment rate, poverty rate, racial composition and consumer credit attributes, such as average credit score. A before-and-after comparison of the affected and unaffected census tracts provides insight into the tornado’s possible impact on consumer credit health. The affected and unaffected census tracts are analyzed by income level: low- and moderate-income (LMI) and non-LMI (i.e., middle- and upper-income).

Credit Card Debt Balances

Credit card debt is the amount consumers owe to credit card companies. When credit card debt is stable, it indicates consumers are making payments toward the amount due on their credit cards. However, increases mean consumers are rolling over debt to another month and paying interest on their balances. This can be a sign of financial distress and, ultimately, can result in delinquency.See Jordan Pandolfo’s December 2024, article in the Kansas City Fed Economic Bulletin, “Consumer Credit Cards Show Few Signs of Financial Stress” (PDF).

The figure below shows that in 2025 the percent change in average credit card debt was higher in tornado-affected census tracts than in unaffected ones, and highest of all in LMI tornado-affected census tracts. For LMI affected census tracts, average credit card debt trended downward for most of 2024. Between the end of the first and fourth quarters of 2025, it rose 6.8% ($321) in these areas compared with 4.2% ($195) in LMI unaffected census tracts. In the last three quarters of 2025, non-LMI affected census tracts saw average credit card debt rise 5.7% ($321), with most of that increase occurring in the fourth quarter. The previous year demonstrates a similar trend, which could reflect greater credit card spending for the holidays. Non-LMI unaffected census tracts had an average credit card debt increase of 4.1% ($228) from the first through the fourth quarters of 2025.

Credit Card Delinquency

Credit card delinquency refers to credit card debt that is 30 days or more past due.Delinquencies on debt that is under forbearance are not reported to credit bureaus, so this analysis likely underreports past-due credit card payments. When delinquency rises, it means consumers are not making timely, minimum-required credit card payments, which can signal financial distress. Delinquency can downgrade credit scores and make it harder to access consumer credit in the future.

In 2025, LMI tornado-affected census tracts had the largest increase in share of credit card debt in delinquency. (See the next figure.) Between the end of the first and fourth quarters of 2025, the share of delinquent credit card debt in LMI affected census tracts increased 2.8 percentage points, to 24.0%, but stayed about the same in LMI unaffected census tracts. LMI affected census tracts also had the largest increase in average delinquent credit card debt during this time. The share of delinquent credit card debt in non-LMI affected and non-LMI unaffected census tracts increased by 0.3 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points, respectively.The analysis likely overestimates the tornado’s effect on the share of delinquent credit card debt in non-LMI affected census tracts because of control group matching.

Conclusion

LMI census tracts affected by the tornado that struck St. Louis in May 2025 experienced a modest increase in average credit card balance, share of delinquent credit card debt and average delinquent credit card debt. This analysis shows that credit health—characterized by the credit card debt metrics discussed above—worsened most for people living in LMI census tracts affected by the storm.

These results are a first look at consumer credit health in Missouri and Illinois communities in the months after the tornado. More time and information are needed to fully understand the tornado’s impact on consumer credit conditions, but so far, it aligns with research findings from other disasters.

Notes

1. For a detailed account of the storm, see “The May 16, 2025, St. Louis Tornado” from the National Weather Service.
2. This blog post provides a descriptive analysis of economic patterns after the May 2025 tornado. The observed decline in credit health should not be interpreted as a direct result of the tornado; other factors may have played a role.
3. See, for example, Brigitte Roth Tran and Tamara Lynn Sheldon’s December 2017 paper, “Same Storm, Different Disasters: Consumer Credit Access, Income Inequality, and Natural Disaster Recovery”; and Caroline Ratcliffe, William Congdon, Daniel Teles, Alexandra Stanczyk and Carlos Martín’s November 2020 article in the Journal of Housing Research, “From Bad to Worse: Natural Disasters and Financial Health.”
4. There are several low- and moderate-income areas in the city of St. Louis where 20% or more of adults do not have a credit score. These adults are not reflected in the analysis.
5. See Jordan Pandolfo’s December 2024, article in the Kansas City Fed Economic Bulletin, “Consumer Credit Cards Show Few Signs of Financial Stress” (PDF).
6. Delinquencies on debt that is under forbearance are not reported to credit bureaus, so this analysis likely underreports past-due credit card payments.
7. The analysis likely overestimates the tornado’s effect on the share of delinquent credit card debt in non-LMI affected census tracts because of control group matching.