On The Economy

The Effects of Extending Unemployment Insurance Benefits

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

©Thinkstock/glegorly

The Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program, which provided additional weeks of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits to long-term unemployed workers, expired at the end of 2013. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis examined what the effect would have been if the program had expired earlier.

In a recent Economic Synopses essay, Economist Maria Canon and Senior Research Associate Yang Liu, both with the St. Louis Fed, computed unemployment rates as if the extended benefits had expired earlier and compared the behavior of workers whose UI benefits were ending in 2008 with the behavior of workers whose UI benefits were ending in 2013.1 When making their comparisons, Canon and Liu assumed that workers facing a loss of benefits in 2013 would have adjusted their job search intensity the same way workers did in 2008.2

They found that, had the EUC program expired earlier in 2013, workers with 46 or more weeks of continuous unemployment would have been 1.2 to 2.1 percentage points more likely to become re-employed. Similarly, the long-term unemployed would have been 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points more likely to exit the labor force entirely. The increases in these two probabilities result in a drop of 1.7 to 2.5 percentage points in the probability these workers would remain unemployed.

Regarding the effect on the unemployment rate, Canon and Liu found that an early expiration of the EUC program would have resulted in a drop of 0.03 to 0.05 percentage points in the observed unemployment rate in late 2013.

Canon and Liu concluded, “We find that the extension of unemployment benefits affected the labor market status of long-term unemployed workers in late 2013. Without extended UI benefits, these unemployed workers would have been more likely to be employed, more likely to exit the labor force, and on average 1.9 percent less likely to remain unemployed in the following period.”

Notes and Resources

1 It should be noted that UI benefits ended after 39 weeks in 2008 and after 46 weeks in 2013.

2 Canon and Liu also kept the economic conditions consistent, as observed in 2013.

Additional Resources

This entry was posted in Labor and tagged maria canon, unemployment. Bookmark the permalink

Commenting Policy: We encourage comments and discussions on our posts, even those that disagree with conclusions, if they are done in a respectful and courteous manner. All comments posted to our blog go through a moderator, so they won't appear immediately after being submitted. We reserve the right to remove or not publish inappropriate comments. This includes, but is not limited to, comments that are:
  • Vulgar, obscene, profane or otherwise disrespectful or discourteous
  • For commercial use, including spam
  • Threatening, harassing or constituting personal attacks
  • Violating copyright or otherwise infringing on third-party rights
  • Off-topic or significantly political
The St. Louis Fed will only respond to comments if we are clarifying a point. Comments are limited to 1,500 characters, so please edit your thinking before posting. While you will retain all of your ownership rights in any comment you submit, posting comments means you grant the St. Louis Fed the royalty-free right, in perpetuity, to use, reproduce, distribute, alter and/or display them, and the St. Louis Fed will be free to use any ideas, concepts, artwork, inventions, developments, suggestions or techniques embodied in your comments for any purpose whatsoever, with or without attribution, and without compensation to you. You will also waive all moral rights you may have in any comment you submit.
comments powered by Disqus

The St. Louis Fed uses Disqus software for the comment functionality on this blog. You can read the Disqus privacy policy. Disqus uses cookies and third party cookies. To learn more about these cookies and how to disable them, please see this article.

About On the Economy

The St. Louis Fed On the Economy blog features relevant commentary, analysis, research and data from our economists and other St. Louis Fed experts.


Views expressed are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or of the Federal Reserve System.

Categories

Contact Us

For media-related questions, e-mail mediainquiries@stls.frb.org. For all other blog-related questions or comments, e-mail on-the-economy@stls.frb.org.