[Home][Banking][Community Development][Newsroom][Education Resources][Publications][About Us][Research]
Home > Publications

publications

Kevin L. Kliesen

Reader Exchange

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Weather Throws a Cold Blanket on the U.S. Economy

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: A Spring-Loaded Economy?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Economic Recovery—Slow and Steady, or Full Steam Ahead?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

The Fed’s Strategy for Exiting from Unconventional Policy: Key Principles, Potential Challenges

By Kevin L. Kliesen

In the wake of the crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet increased from the historical 6 percent of GDP to more than 20 percent. As plans are made to return to normal monetary policy, it’s important to be aware of the challenges and potential pitfalls of this transition.

 

National Overview: Mixed Signals, but Moving Forward

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Signs Point to Stronger Growth in GDP This Year

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Uncertainty and the Economy

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Rising levels of economic uncertainty, which are common following a recession, are reportedly hindering firms from investing and expanding. Monetary policymakers, likewise, are not immune to the challenges economic uncertainty poses.

 

National Overview: Fiscal Uncertainty Clouds Outlook for Growth

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Accounting for U.S. Growth: Is There a New Normal?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

If labor productivity growth continues to decline while the employment-to-population ratio stabilizes at its current position, America’s economy might have a new normal: Real GDP growth could hover around 2 percent rather than 3 percent.

 

National Overview: Economy Still Growing albeit at a Tepid Pace

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Central View: Follow Regional Agricultural Financial Conditions with New Quarterly Survey

By Kevin L. Kliesen

The St. Louis Fed’s Agricultural Finance Monitor quarterly reports on regional agricultural financial conditions, as well as bankers’ expectations of farmland values, farm loan repayment rates, required collateral, farm loan interest rates and credit supply and demand.

 

National Overview: Signs Point to Stronger Real GDP Growth in 2012 than Last Year's 1.6

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: The U.S. Economy Should Strengthen As Year Goes By

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: The Economy Should Be Able To Avoid a Recession in 2012

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: New Data Elevate Uncertainty about the Outlook on the Economy

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Recovery Continues despite New Risks, Old Problems

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Are Small Businesses the Biggest Producers of Jobs?

By Kevin L. Kliesen and Julia S. Maues

It's often said that small businesses generate the most jobs in the U.S. This is true if one looks at the gross number of jobs. But because small businesses have a high failure rate, they are not the largest producer of jobs at the net level.

 

National Overview: The Economy Continues To Strengthen, but Risks Remain

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Forecasters Expect Solid Growth, Low Inflation in 2011

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Low Interest Rates Have Benefits … and Costs

By Kevin L. Kliesen

On the plus side, low interest rates can spur spending by businesses and households. But low interest rates discourage saving and encourage people to take more risks when investing.

 

National Overview: The Economy Looks for Its Second Wind

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Economy Is Nearing Cruising Altitude

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Signs Point toward Another Jobless Recovery

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Commercial Real Estate: A Drag for Some Banks but Maybe Not for U.S. Economy

By Rajeev R. Bhaskar Yadav K. Gopalan, and Kevin L. Kliesen,

Community banks seem to have the most to fear about the state of commercial real estate today. The problems with these loans, however, shouldn’t derail the entire economy.

 

Inflation May Be the Next Dragon To Slay

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Although some think it’s too soon to worry about high inflation, there are risks for that to happen in the medium term. Besides the obvious risks, a new bubble might be brewing in asset prices as investors search for higher returns, and the gap between actual output and potential output might be smaller than most think. Watch video

 

National Overview: The Recovery Might Be a 98-Pound Weakling

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Book Review: In Fed We Trust: New Book Focuses on the Fed in the Eye of the Storm

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Digging Into the Infrastructure Debate

By Kevin L. Kliesen and Douglas C. Smith

Is the nation's infrastructure really in such bad shape?  Should we be spending more on the Internet and less on interstates?  And what of competing needs—health care, education, wars?

 

National Overview: The Storm Clouds Begin To Depart

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Nearing the Bottom, or Digging a Deeper Hole?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Man the Lifeboats!

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Threats to the Economy Don’t Let Up

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Ethanol: Economic Gain or Drain?

By Joshua A. Byrge and Kevin L. Kliesen

Corn-based ethanol can make a dent in demand for oil, but at what price? Food costs go up. Environmental damage worsens. If oil prices fall, ethanol production will probably collapse—as it did 20 years ago.

 

National Overview: Triple Whammy Fuels Economic Doubts

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Skirting the Edge?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Recent Changes to the Fed’s Communication Strategy: Loud and Clear?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Housing Woes Weigh Heavily on the Economy

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Trading Barbs: A Primer on the Globalization Debate

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Support for free trade seems to be waning, even though history has shown that globalization has produced large benefits for most parts of the world. How far—if at all—should policymakers go to appease those who hold a different view?

 

As Boomers Slow Down, So Might the Economy

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Baby boomers will start retiring in droves in January. Coupled with the slowdown in productivity and the near-zero saving rate, growth in GDP could fall to levels not seen in 25 years.

 

National Overview: The Economy Continues to Take a Punch

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Will the U.S. Economy Find Its Groove This Year?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Below-Trend Growth Is Predicted for Most of 2007

By Joshua A. Byrge and Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Electricity: The Next Energy Jolt?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

The next energy crisis may not involve oil or natural gas, but electricity. The amount available during peak periods of demand is shrinking, and the reliability of bulk transmission lines is being questioned.

 

Survey Says Families Are Digging Deeper into Debt

By Kevin L. Kliesen

The Fed’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances found that median household debt rose almost 34 percent between 2001 and 2004, while net worth rose just 1.5 percent.

 

National Overview: U.S. Maneuvers through Choppy Waters

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Economy Overcomes Hurricanes, Rising Energy Prices

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: Despite Setbacks, the U.S. Economy Steams Forward

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National Overview: A Patchwork Economy?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Are We Saving Enough?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Economist Kevin L. Kliesen discusses why business, government and personal saving rates are important drivers for the U.S. economy.

 

Do We Have a Saving Crisis?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Theoretically, the decline in saving jeopardizes our economy because savings are lent to businesses for investment. In reality, the U.S. economy is doing better than the economies of countries where saving is much higher. Can this continue?

 

National Overview: Economy's Expansion Puts Down Roots

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: Economists Expect Solid Economic Growth This Year

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Fear of Hell Might Fire Up the Economy

By Frank A. Schmid and Kevin L. Kliesen

In those countries where a large percentage of the population believes in hell, there seem to be less corruption and a higher standard of living.

 

National and District Overview: Waiting on the Fed

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

A Jobless Recovery with More People Working?

By Kevin L. Kliesen and Howard J. Wall

One employment survey said 800,000 jobs were lost in the two years after the recession ended in November 2001. Another survey said 2 million more people were working. Can anyone account for this huge gap?

 

National and District Overview: The Party Heats Up

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: Economy Finally Takes Off

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

The Economy Gets Back on Track: but Once Again Leaves Many Workers Behind

By Kevin L. Kliesen

After each of the past two recessions, the recovery has been lackluster, with little economic growth and job creation. Historically, the rebound has been much stronger. Is the economy changing fundamentally?

 

National and District Overview: Slow Recovery Remains Puzzling

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: The U.S. Economy: Between Iraq and a Hard Place

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Will an End to the War with Iraq Unleash Economic Prosperity?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Big Government: The Comeback Kid?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

In the cover story, find out why the federal government’s days of scaling back are over. Fueling the buildup are corporate accounting scandals, the war on terrorism and demands for a Medicare prescription drug program.

 

National and District Overview: Recovery Has a Case of the Slows

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: Recovery Isn't As Easy As in the Past

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: Full Steam Ahead?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Government Budget Surpluses Head South: Will They Come Back?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Increased spending on the war, domestic security and Medicaid could slow the rebound in government budgets.

 

National and District Overview: Road to Recovery Longer Than Average?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: Despite Red Flags, Inflation under Control

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

The Microchip Flexes Its Muscle: Can It Compete with History's Best?

By Kevin L. Kliesen and David C. Wheelock

The development of the microchip sparked another industrial revolution. But will this revolution yield the long-term surge in productivity that the First and Second industrial revolutions produced?

 

National and District Overview: Will the U.S. Economy Gain A Second Wind?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Rising Oil Prices and Economic Turmoil: Must They Always Go Hand in Hand?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

When oil prices jump, people get jumpy--especially when the Fed is bumping up interest rate targets at the same time. Why? Because these two events have accompanied virtually every recession since World War II. At least until now.

 

Feditorial: Oil Prices and the Threat of Recession

By Kevin L. Kliesen

We're less susceptible to energy price hikes.

 

National and District Overview: Fast Lane, Slow Lane Or Cruising Speed?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: How Reliable Are Federal Budget Projections?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: New Millennium: Same Vibrant Economy?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

National and District Overview: National and District Economies Maintain Cruising Speed

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

The NAIRU: Tailor-Made for the Fed?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Fed critics have charged the central bank with relying on an outmoded economic indicator to predict inflation. But the charge doesn’t suit the evidence.

 

An Oasis of Prosperity: Solely An American Phenomenon?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

While economies worldwide falter, the United States remains steadfast. How did our nation get to be the land of milk and honey?

 

Is the Bloom off the Rose for Eighth District Farmers?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

After prospering at record rates in 1996 and ’97, farmers experienced a sobering setback last year. Will the future on the farm be grim or grand?

 

National and District Overview: National and District Economies Strong. Will the Trend Continue?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

 

Models and Monetary Policy: More Science Than Art?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

It has been said that, ‘”Forecasters may never be right, but they are never in doubt.” Not with a good model by their side, that is.

 

Enhancing Future Retirement Income through 401(k)s

By Kevin L. Kliesen

With too many retirees and too few funds expected, the future of the country’s Social Security and Medicare programs is likely to be in peril. Can 401(k)s save the day?

 

How Susceptible is the United States to the Asian Flu?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

The financial maladies that have afflicted East Asian nations recently have let many policymakers feeling ill at ease. But is there true cause for concern?

 

A Brave New Economic World? The Productivity Puzzle

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Most economists and policymakers are positively giddy about the current state of the economy. But is their bubble about to burst?

 

Critiquing the Consumer Price Index

By Kevin L. Kliesen

According to some, the saying, “Everybody complains about the weather, but nobody ever does anything about it” could be just as easily applied to the consumer price index. But what should be done?

 

Assessing the Generational Gap in Future Living Standards through Generational Accounting

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Figuring out how to equalize the tax burden across generations is easy. Deciding who’s going to pay for it is the hard part.

 

What's Up Down on the Farm?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Eighth District farmers are living high off the hog after last year’s generous yields.

 

A Recipe for Monetary Policy Credibility

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Concocting a credible monetary policy is far from easy, especially with the number of ingredients there are to choose from.

 

Tax Man Heal Thyself

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Most economists agree that the current U.S. tax system requires reforming. How to go about it, though, is open to debate.

 

District Automotive Sector Flourishing

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Move over Michigan, the Eighth District’s accelerating automobile production may leave you in the dust.

 

Chained, Rested and Ready: The New and Improved GDP

By Kevin L. Kliesen

A retired Navy admiral once said that one accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions. The Commerce Department is counting on just that with its new method of calculating GDP.

 

A Fiscal Devolution: Can State and Local Governments Measure Up?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Thanks to belt-tightening, states are in the best shape they’ve been in since the 1980s. The fat they’ll need to absorb from unfunded federal programs, though, could weigh them down.

 

District Economy Takes Off in '94

By Kevin L. Kliesen

The numbers are in: Low unemployment and brisk sales made for a healthy Eighth District economy last year. But what’s in store for the rest of 1995?

 

A Fed Focused on Price Stability: The Benefits of a Single Target

By Kevin L. Kliesen

The Humphrey-Hawkins legislation directs the Fed to achieve numerous goals, inviting it to respond to current events with a change in policy direction. Why a long-term, single-goal strategy is a better idea.

 

The Fixation on International Competitiveness

By Kevin L. Kliesen

In today’s global marketplace, countries can’t help but feel drawn into the hype of international competition. But should cross-country comparisons hold such sway with policymakers? And more important, are they in the best interests of a country’s economy?

 

District Economic Update: Will the Sailing Remain Smooth?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

As the national economy sours, so typically goes the economy of the Eighth District. Today, the national economy looks sunny. But clouds are looming on the District horizon. Will they go away?

 

Commodity Price Indexes: Can They Predict Inflation?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Commodity prices often provide valuable information about future inflation. But commodity price indexes can’t predict inflation by themselves.

 

The Economics of Natural Disasters

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Natural disasters like Hurricane Andrew or the Great Flood of ’93 can cause a lot of devastation. And the resulting problems aren’t always localized—at times, even the national economy is affected.

 

Can Agriculture Rebound This Year?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

The early money is on a good year for farmers in 1994. But if we have weather like we did in 1993, all bets are off.

 

IOUs from the Edge: Should We Worry about the Budget Deficit?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Ross Perot thinks so. So do a host of government officials, including Bill Clinton. Talk to an economist, though, and you might get an opposing view.

 

Restructuring And Economic Growth: Taking The Long-Term View

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Restructuring is being blamed for much of the economy's sluggish growth. But what do we mean when we say restructuring? Is it all bad news? Is it even news at all?

 

Some Upbeat Trends in District Employment

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Though the economy is expanding once again, employment continues to grow slugglishly in many parts of the country.  In comparison, parts of the Eighth District look pretty good.

 

Leaning Against the Wind: Does the Fed Engage in Countercyclical Monetary Policy?

By Kevin L. Kliesen

Analysts differ about whether the Fed should attempt to smooth out the business cycle.  But one thing's for sure: It's not an easy thing to do.