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publications
Kevin L. Kliesen
National Overview: Signs Point to Stronger Growth in GDP This Year
The Regional Economist | April 2013
By Kevin L. Kliesen and Lowell R. Ricketts
The Regional Economist | April 2013
Rising levels of economic uncertainty, which are common following a recession, are reportedly hindering firms from investing and expanding. Monetary policymakers, likewise, are not immune to the challenges economic uncertainty poses.
National Overview: Fiscal Uncertainty Clouds Outlook for Growth
The Regional Economist | January 2013
Accounting for U.S. Growth: Is There a New Normal?
The Regional Economist | October 2012
If labor productivity growth continues to decline while the employment-to-population ratio stabilizes at its current position, America’s economy might have a new normal: Real GDP growth could hover around 2 percent rather than 3 percent.
National Overview: Economy Still Growing albeit at a Tepid Pace
The Regional Economist | October 2012
Central View: Follow Regional Agricultural Financial Conditions with New Quarterly Survey
The St. Louis Fed’s Agricultural Finance Monitor quarterly reports on regional agricultural financial conditions, as well as bankers’ expectations of farmland values, farm loan repayment rates, required collateral, farm loan interest rates and credit supply and demand.
National Overview: Signs Point to Stronger Real GDP Growth in 2012 than Last Year's 1.6
The Regional Economist | July 2012
National Overview: The U.S. Economy Should Strengthen As Year Goes By
The Regional Economist | April 2012
National Overview: The Economy Should Be Able To Avoid a Recession in 2012
The Regional Economist | January 2012
National Overview: New Data Elevate Uncertainty about the Outlook on the Economy
The Regional Economist | October 2011
National Overview: Recovery Continues despite New Risks, Old Problems
The Regional Economist | July 2011
Are Small Businesses the Biggest Producers of Jobs?
By Kevin L. Kliesen and Julia S. Maués
The Regional Economist | April 2011
It's often said that small businesses generate the most jobs in the U.S. This is true if one looks at the gross number of jobs. But because small businesses have a high failure rate, they are not the largest producer of jobs at the net level.
National Overview: The Economy Continues To Strengthen, but Risks Remain
The Regional Economist | April 2011
National Overview: Forecasters Expect Solid Growth, Low Inflation in 2011
The Regional Economist | January 2011
Low Interest Rates Have Benefits … and Costs
The Regional Economist | October 2010
On the plus side, low interest rates can spur spending by businesses and households. But low interest rates discourage saving and encourage people to take more risks when investing.
National Overview: The Economy Looks for Its Second Wind
The Regional Economist | October 2010
National Overview: Economy Is Nearing Cruising Altitude
The Regional Economist | July 2010
National Overview: Signs Point toward Another Jobless Recovery
The Regional Economist | April 2010
Commercial Real Estate: A Drag for Some Banks but Maybe Not for U.S. Economy
By Rajeev R. Bhaskar Yadav K. Gopalan, and Kevin L. Kliesen,
The Regional Economist | January 2010
Community banks seem to have the most to fear about the state of commercial real estate today. The problems with these loans, however, shouldn’t derail the entire economy.
Inflation May Be the Next Dragon To Slay
The Regional Economist | January 2010
Although some think it’s too soon to worry about high inflation, there are risks for that to happen in the medium term. Besides the obvious risks, a new bubble might be brewing in asset prices as investors search for higher returns, and the gap between actual output and potential output might be smaller than most think. Watch video
National Overview: The Recovery Might Be a 98-Pound Weakling
The Regional Economist | January 2010
Book Review: In Fed We Trust: New Book Focuses on the Fed in the Eye of the Storm
The Regional Economist | October 2009
Digging Into the Infrastructure Debate
By Kevin L. Kliesen and Douglas C. Smith
The Regional Economist | July 2009
Is the nation's infrastructure really in such bad shape? Should we be spending more on the Internet and less on interstates? And what of competing needs—health care, education, wars?
National Overview: The Storm Clouds Begin To Depart
The Regional Economist | July 2009
National Overview: Nearing the Bottom, or Digging a Deeper Hole?
The Regional Economist | April 2009
National Overview: Man the Lifeboats!
The Regional Economist | January 2009
National Overview: Threats to the Economy Don’t Let Up
The Regional Economist | October 2008
Ethanol: Economic Gain or Drain?
By Joshua A. Byrge and Kevin L. Kliesen
The Regional Economist | July 2008
Corn-based ethanol can make a dent in demand for oil, but at what price? Food costs go up. Environmental damage worsens. If oil prices fall, ethanol production will probably collapse—as it did 20 years ago.
National Overview: Triple Whammy Fuels Economic Doubts
The Regional Economist | July 2008
National Overview: Skirting the Edge?
The Regional Economist | April 2008
Recent Changes to the Fed’s Communication Strategy: Loud and Clear?
National Overview: Housing Woes Weigh Heavily on the Economy
The Regional Economist | October 2007
Trading Barbs: A Primer on the Globalization Debate
The Regional Economist | October 2007
Support for free trade seems to be waning, even though history has shown that globalization has produced large benefits for most parts of the world. How far—if at all—should policymakers go to appease those who hold a different view?
As Boomers Slow Down, So Might the Economy
The Regional Economist | July 2007
Baby boomers will start retiring in droves in January. Coupled with the slowdown in productivity and the near-zero saving rate, growth in GDP could fall to levels not seen in 25 years.
National Overview: The Economy Continues to Take a Punch
The Regional Economist | July 2007
National Overview: Will the U.S. Economy Find Its Groove This Year?
The Regional Economist | April 2007
National Overview: Below-Trend Growth Is Predicted for Most of 2007
By Joshua A. Byrge and Kevin L. Kliesen
The Regional Economist | January 2007
Electricity: The Next Energy Jolt?
The Regional Economist | October 2006
The next energy crisis may not involve oil or natural gas, but electricity. The amount available during peak periods of demand is shrinking, and the reliability of bulk transmission lines is being questioned.
Survey Says Families Are Digging Deeper into Debt
The Regional Economist | July 2006
The Fed’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances found that median household debt rose almost 34 percent between 2001 and 2004, while net worth rose just 1.5 percent.
National Overview: U.S. Maneuvers through Choppy Waters
The Regional Economist | July 2006
National Overview: Economy Overcomes Hurricanes, Rising Energy Prices
The Regional Economist | April 2006
National Overview: Despite Setbacks, the U.S. Economy Steams Forward
The Regional Economist | January 2006
National Overview: A Patchwork Economy?
The Regional Economist | July 2005
Economist Kevin L. Kliesen discusses why business, government and personal saving rates are important drivers for the U.S. economy.
The Regional Economist | July 2005
Theoretically, the decline in saving jeopardizes our economy because savings are lent to businesses for investment. In reality, the U.S. economy is doing better than the economies of countries where saving is much higher. Can this continue?
National Overview: Economy's Expansion Puts Down Roots
The Regional Economist | April 2005
National and District Overview: Economists Expect Solid Economic Growth This Year
The Regional Economist | January 2005
Fear of Hell Might Fire Up the Economy
By Frank A. Schmid and Kevin L. Kliesen
The Regional Economist | July 2004
In those countries where a large percentage of the population believes in hell, there seem to be less corruption and a higher standard of living.
National and District Overview: Waiting on the Fed
The Regional Economist | July 2004
A Jobless Recovery with More People Working?
By Kevin L. Kliesen and Howard J. Wall
The Regional Economist | April 2004
One employment survey said 800,000 jobs were lost in the two years after the recession ended in November 2001. Another survey said 2 million more people were working. Can anyone account for this huge gap?
National and District Overview: The Party Heats Up
The Regional Economist | April 2004
National and District Overview: Economy Finally Takes Off
The Regional Economist | January 2004
The Economy Gets Back on Track: but Once Again Leaves Many Workers Behind
The Regional Economist | January 2004
After each of the past two recessions, the recovery has been lackluster, with little economic growth and job creation. Historically, the rebound has been much stronger. Is the economy changing fundamentally?
National and District Overview: Slow Recovery Remains Puzzling
The Regional Economist | July 2003
National and District Overview: The U.S. Economy: Between Iraq and a Hard Place
The Regional Economist | April 2003
Will an End to the War with Iraq Unleash Economic Prosperity?
Big Government: The Comeback Kid?
The Regional Economist | January 2003
In the cover story, find out why the federal government’s days of scaling back are over. Fueling the buildup are corporate accounting scandals, the war on terrorism and demands for a Medicare prescription drug program.
National and District Overview: Recovery Has a Case of the Slows
The Regional Economist | January 2003
National and District Overview: Recovery Isn't As Easy As in the Past
The Regional Economist | July 2002
National and District Overview: Full Steam Ahead?
The Regional Economist | April 2002
Government Budget Surpluses Head South: Will They Come Back?
The Regional Economist | April 2002
Increased spending on the war, domestic security and Medicaid could slow the rebound in government budgets.
National and District Overview: Road to Recovery Longer Than Average?
The Regional Economist | January 2002
National and District Overview: Despite Red Flags, Inflation under Control
The Regional Economist | October 2001
The Microchip Flexes Its Muscle: Can It Compete with History's Best?
By Kevin L. Kliesen and David C. Wheelock
The Regional Economist | July 2001
The development of the microchip sparked another industrial revolution. But will this revolution yield the long-term surge in productivity that the First and Second industrial revolutions produced?
National and District Overview: Will the U.S. Economy Gain A Second Wind?
The Regional Economist | April 2001
Rising Oil Prices and Economic Turmoil: Must They Always Go Hand in Hand?
The Regional Economist | January 2001
When oil prices jump, people get jumpy--especially when the Fed is bumping up interest rate targets at the same time. Why? Because these two events have accompanied virtually every recession since World War II. At least until now.
Feditorial: Oil Prices and the Threat of Recession
We're less susceptible to energy price hikes.
National and District Overview: Fast Lane, Slow Lane Or Cruising Speed?
The Regional Economist | July 2000
National and District Overview: How Reliable Are Federal Budget Projections?
The Regional Economist | April 2000
National and District Overview: New Millennium: Same Vibrant Economy?
The Regional Economist | January 2000
National and District Overview: National and District Economies Maintain Cruising Speed
The Regional Economist | October 1999
The NAIRU: Tailor-Made for the Fed?
The Regional Economist | October 1999
Fed critics have charged the central bank with relying on an outmoded economic indicator to predict inflation. But the charge doesn’t suit the evidence.
An Oasis of Prosperity: Solely An American Phenomenon?
The Regional Economist | July 1999
While economies worldwide falter, the United States remains steadfast. How did our nation get to be the land of milk and honey?
Is the Bloom off the Rose for Eighth District Farmers?
The Regional Economist | April 1999
After prospering at record rates in 1996 and ’97, farmers experienced a sobering setback last year. Will the future on the farm be grim or grand?
National and District Overview: National and District Economies Strong. Will the Trend Continue?
The Regional Economist | April 1999
Models and Monetary Policy: More Science Than Art?
The Regional Economist | January 1999
It has been said that, ‘”Forecasters may never be right, but they are never in doubt.” Not with a good model by their side, that is.
Enhancing Future Retirement Income through 401(k)s
The Regional Economist | October 1998
With too many retirees and too few funds expected, the future of the country’s Social Security and Medicare programs is likely to be in peril. Can 401(k)s save the day?
How Susceptible is the United States to the Asian Flu?
The Regional Economist | April 1998
The financial maladies that have afflicted East Asian nations recently have let many policymakers feeling ill at ease. But is there true cause for concern?
A Brave New Economic World? The Productivity Puzzle
The Regional Economist | January 1998
Most economists and policymakers are positively giddy about the current state of the economy. But is their bubble about to burst?
Critiquing the Consumer Price Index
The Regional Economist | July 1997
According to some, the saying, “Everybody complains about the weather, but nobody ever does anything about it” could be just as easily applied to the consumer price index. But what should be done?
Assessing the Generational Gap in Future Living Standards through Generational Accounting
The Regional Economist | April 1997
Figuring out how to equalize the tax burden across generations is easy. Deciding who’s going to pay for it is the hard part.
The Regional Economist | January 1997
Eighth District farmers are living high off the hog after last year’s generous yields.
A Recipe for Monetary Policy Credibility
The Regional Economist | October 1996
Concocting a credible monetary policy is far from easy, especially with the number of ingredients there are to choose from.
The Regional Economist | July 1996
Most economists agree that the current U.S. tax system requires reforming. How to go about it, though, is open to debate.
District Automotive Sector Flourishing
The Regional Economist | April 1996
Move over Michigan, the Eighth District’s accelerating automobile production may leave you in the dust.
Chained, Rested and Ready: The New and Improved GDP
The Regional Economist | January 1996
A retired Navy admiral once said that one accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions. The Commerce Department is counting on just that with its new method of calculating GDP.
A Fiscal Devolution: Can State and Local Governments Measure Up?
The Regional Economist | October 1995
Thanks to belt-tightening, states are in the best shape they’ve been in since the 1980s. The fat they’ll need to absorb from unfunded federal programs, though, could weigh them down.
District Economy Takes Off in '94
The Regional Economist | July 1995
The numbers are in: Low unemployment and brisk sales made for a healthy Eighth District economy last year. But what’s in store for the rest of 1995?
A Fed Focused on Price Stability: The Benefits of a Single Target
The Regional Economist | April 1995
The Humphrey-Hawkins legislation directs the Fed to achieve numerous goals, inviting it to respond to current events with a change in policy direction. Why a long-term, single-goal strategy is a better idea.
The Fixation on International Competitiveness
The Regional Economist | January 1995
In today’s global marketplace, countries can’t help but feel drawn into the hype of international competition. But should cross-country comparisons hold such sway with policymakers? And more important, are they in the best interests of a country’s economy?
District Economic Update: Will the Sailing Remain Smooth?
The Regional Economist | October 1994
As the national economy sours, so typically goes the economy of the Eighth District. Today, the national economy looks sunny. But clouds are looming on the District horizon. Will they go away?
Commodity Price Indexes: Can They Predict Inflation?
The Regional Economist | July 1994
Commodity prices often provide valuable information about future inflation. But commodity price indexes can’t predict inflation by themselves.
The Economics of Natural Disasters
The Regional Economist | April 1994
Natural disasters like Hurricane Andrew or the Great Flood of ’93 can cause a lot of devastation. And the resulting problems aren’t always localized—at times, even the national economy is affected.
Can Agriculture Rebound This Year?
The Regional Economist | January 1994
The early money is on a good year for farmers in 1994. But if we have weather like we did in 1993, all bets are off.
IOUs from the Edge: Should We Worry about the Budget Deficit?
The Regional Economist | October 1993
Ross Perot thinks so. So do a host of government officials, including Bill Clinton. Talk to an economist, though, and you might get an opposing view.
Restructuring And Economic Growth: Taking The Long-Term View
The Regional Economist | July 1993
Restructuring is being blamed for much of the economy's sluggish growth. But what do we mean when we say restructuring? Is it all bad news? Is it even news at all?
Some Upbeat Trends in District Employment
The Regional Economist | April 1993
Though the economy is expanding once again, employment continues to grow slugglishly in many parts of the country. In comparison, parts of the Eighth District look pretty good.
Leaning Against the Wind: Does the Fed Engage in Countercyclical Monetary Policy?
The Regional Economist | January 1993
Analysts differ about whether the Fed should attempt to smooth out the business cycle. But one thing's for sure: It's not an easy thing to do.
