Student Forecasters Challenge the Pros

Where is the economy headed?  Some astute answers to that question came Oct. 18 from a rather surprising source: local high school students. As part of the Civic Entrepreneurs Organization (CEO) MarketCast 2008 event, students from around the St. Louis area took part in “The Next Generation” program.

The Next Generation program was held the morning of the MarketCast event.  To kick things off, Fed economist Kevin Kliesen gave a presentation titled “What Is Economic Forecasting?” to the student audience. 

Following Kliesen’s talk, student panelists presented economic forecasts for October 2008 on the following indicators: economic growth (GDP), inflation, unemployment, the 10-year bond yield, the Dow Jones Industrial average and the price of crude oil. 

This year, the panelists were from Marquette, Parkway Central and Clayton high schools. The student audience included students from the panelists’ schools and from Beaumont, Eureka, Timberland, and Central Visual and Performing Arts high schools. 

The student panelists presented their forecasts to fellow students and the MarketCast 2008 professional panelists, Charles Payne, Kathleen Camilli and Bryan Wesbury.  The student forecasters agreed that unemployment would be between 4.8 percent and 4.9 percent in October 2008.  However, there wasn't as much agreement among the forecasters about the other indicators, as shown below.

Panelist	Gross Domestic Product	Unemployment	CPI	10-yr. Note	Dow	Crude Oil
Ellie Bullard, Clayton	2.4%	4.9%		4.8%
Hyrum Shumway, Clayton			2.0%		14,500	$94
Jereme Kramer, Marquette			2.8%		15,000	$76
Jennifer Storozum, Marquette	2.7%	4.8%		4.9%
David Levary, Parkway Central		4.8%			12,500	$100
Student, Parkway Central	2.3%		2.1%	4.5%

“We have learned that our student panelists are excellent forecasters,” said Dawn Conner, coordinator of economic education at the St. Louis Fed. “Each year, we compare the actual economic data with the professional panelists’ forecasts and the student panelists’ forecasts. Historically, the student panelists perform very well.”

After their presentations, the student panelists and those in the audience had the opportunity to ask questions of the professionals. “The fact that students had so many questions that we ran out of time is an indication of the students’ level of interest in the economy and their role in it,” said Mark Bayles, teacher at Clayton High School.

Following the Next Generation program, students attended the MarketCast luncheon program and heard the presentations by the professionals.

According to Eva Johnston, high school teacher at Marquette, “This event is a positive learning experience for the students who participate. They appreciate seeing their peers give a stab at forecasting and hearing a Fed economist explain forecasting. They learn a great deal from the professional panelists’ presentations and from the questions of their peers and the adult audience.”

Now in its 11th year, the Next Generation program was developed cooperatively by CEO and the St. Louis Fed. Schools that have participated in the educational programs provided by the Fed are offered the opportunity to participate.

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