Federal Reserve System and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors

Community Banking in the 21st Century

October 2, 2013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

John Kandrac, Bank Failure, Relationship Lending and Local Economic Performance

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John Kandrac, an economist with the Federal Reserve Board, presents his paper “Bank Failure, Relationship Lending and Local Economic Performance.” He finds that bank failures were often followed by declining local economic conditions and that failures more strongly affected high-competition banking markets.

Bank Failure, Relationship Lending and Local Economic Performance (PDF)

Abstract: Whether bank failures have adverse effects on local economies is an important question for which there is scarce and conflicting evidence. In this study, I use county-level data to examine the effect of bank failures and resolutions on local economies. Using quasi-experimental techniques, as well as cross-sectional variation in bank failures, I show that recent bank failures were followed by significantly lower income and compensation growth, higher poverty rates, and lower employment. Additionally, I find that the structure of bank resolution appears to be important. Resolutions that include loss-sharing agreements tend to be less deleterious to local economies, supporting the notion that the importance of bank failure to local economies stems from banking and credit relationships. Finally, I show that markets with more interbank competition are more strongly affected by bank failure.

Conference Videos

Welcome & Overview (Oct. 2)
Moderator: Julie Stackhouse (5:29)

Opening Remarks
John Ryan (4:58)
James Bullard (4:39)
Ben Bernanke (8:40)

Research Session 1: The Role of Community Banks
Research Session 1 Moderator: Scott E. Hein (5:35)
Do Community Banks Play a Role in New Firm Survival? (Smith Williams) (18:27)
Equipment Lease Financing: The Role of Community Banks (Mohammed Khayum) (13:24)
Equipment Lease Financing: The Role of Community Banks (Charles Kelly) (14:03)
Small Business Lending and Social Capital: Are Rural Relationships Different? (Kenneth Spong) (25:08)
Bank Failure, Relationship Lending and Local Economic Performance (John Kandrac) (22:32)
Q&A (16:07)

Evening Keynote Address
Dorothy Savarese (38:04)

Community Banking Performance (Oct. 3)
Moderator: Richard Brown (5:07)
Financial Derivatives at Community Banks (Shelly Shen) (11:12)
Lessons from Community Banks that Recovered from Financial Distress (Andrew P. Meyer) (22:40)
The Effect of Distance on Community Bank Performance Following Acquisitions and Reorganizations (Timothy J. Yeager) (20:43)
Performance of Community Banks in Good Times and Bad Times: Does Management Matter? (Dean F. Amel) (17:02)
Research Session 2 Question and Answer Period (21:41)

Supervision and Regulation of Community Banks
Moderator: Lamont Black (4:09)
Estimating Changes in Supervisory Standards and Their Economic Effects (William F. Bassett) (17:23)
The Impact of Dodd-Frank on Community Banks (Tanya D. Marsh) (15:39)
Capital Regulation at Community Banks: Lessons from 400 Failures (Robert R. Moore) (14:39)
A Failure to Communicate: The Pathology of Too Big to Fail (Harvey Rosenblum) (18:15)
Research Session 3 Moderator Wrap-up (14:43)
Audience Question and Answer Session (14:46)

Afternoon Keynote Presentation
Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell (28:27)

Panel Discussion and Presentation of Results from Town Hall Sessions
Presenter: Mike Stevens (13:20)

Panel Discussion: Community Banking in the 21st Century: Opportunities, Challenges and Perspectives
Moderator: Charles A. Vice (13:32)
Curt Hecker (7:38)
Bobby P. Martin (12:24)
Thomas E. Spitz (8:30)
Claire W. Tucker (9:14)
Community Banking Panel Question and Answer Period (1:04:29)
Julie Stackhouse, Closing Remarks (11:13)

Conference of State Bank Supervisor